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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Lille

S S T S U

3–0

Full-time

Ajaccio

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Ajaccio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 35%

50%

19%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

53%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

66%

41%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,64 xG 0,48

75% Possession 25%

10 Shots 2

5 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 0

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Ajaccio 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	32	24	3	5	+44	+3.4	75
2	Marseille	32	20	7	5	+28	+6.8	67
3	Lens	32	19	9	4	+29	+7.2	66
4	Monaco	32	18	7	7	+20	+4.2	61
5	Lille	32	16	8	8	+17	+12.0	56
6	Rennes	32	16	5	11	+17	+1.6	53
7	Lyon	33	15	8	10	+15	+0.7	53
8	Reims	32	11	14	7	+6	+10.5	47
9	Clermont	32	13	7	12	-8	-1.7	46
10	Nice	32	11	12	9	+8	+3.5	45
11	Lorient	32	12	9	11	-1	-5.1	45
12	Toulouse	32	12	5	15	-6	+0.8	41
13	Montpellier	32	12	4	16	-4	-1.4	40
14	Auxerre	32	8	9	15	-23	-0.4	33
15	Strasbourg	33	7	11	15	-11	+0.9	32
16	Nantes	32	6	14	12	-11	-4.9	32
17	Brest	32	7	11	14	-13	-8.9	32
18	Troyes	32	4	10	18	-28	-15.5	22
19	Ajaccio	32	6	4	22	-36	-3.6	22
20	Angers	32	3	5	24	-43	-10.2	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	16	14	1	1	+23	+1.8	43
2	Paris SG	16	12	2	2	+18	-0.1	38
3	Rennes	16	12	0	4	+21	+3.3	36
4	Lille	16	10	4	2	+10	+8.5	34
5	Monaco	16	9	2	5	+9	+0.2	29
6	Marseille	16	8	4	4	+9	+4.0	28
7	Lyon	16	7	5	4	+10	+2.2	26
8	Reims	16	7	5	4	+6	+10.2	26
9	Lorient	16	7	4	5	+5	+2.7	25
10	Montpellier	17	7	2	8	+1	-0.4	23
11	Toulouse	16	6	4	6	+1	+2.5	22
12	Nice	16	5	6	5	+3	+1.8	21
13	Auxerre	16	5	6	5	-7	+2.0	21
14	Clermont	16	6	3	7	-12	+1.0	21
15	Nantes	16	4	8	4	-2	+0.1	20
16	Strasbourg	17	4	6	7	-3	+4.4	18
17	Brest	15	4	5	6	-5	-2.2	17
18	Troyes	15	1	9	5	-8	-6.4	12
19	Ajaccio	16	3	2	11	-16	+0.7	11
20	Angers	17	2	3	12	-16	-3.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	16	12	3	1	+19	+2.9	39
2	Paris SG	16	12	1	3	+26	+3.5	37
3	Monaco	16	9	5	2	+11	+4.0	32
4	Lyon	17	8	3	6	+5	-1.5	27
5	Clermont	16	7	4	5	+4	-2.7	25
6	Nice	16	6	6	4	+5	+1.7	24
7	Lens	16	5	8	3	+6	+5.3	23
8	Lille	16	6	4	6	+7	+3.5	22
9	Reims	16	4	9	3	+0	+0.2	21
10	Lorient	16	5	5	6	-6	-7.8	20
11	Toulouse	16	6	1	9	-7	-1.7	19
12	Rennes	16	4	5	7	-4	-1.7	17
13	Montpellier	15	5	2	8	-5	-1.0	17
14	Brest	17	3	6	8	-8	-6.7	15
15	Strasbourg	16	3	5	8	-8	-3.6	14
16	Nantes	16	2	6	8	-9	-5.0	12
17	Auxerre	16	3	3	10	-16	-2.4	12
18	Ajaccio	16	3	2	11	-20	-4.3	11
19	Troyes	17	3	1	13	-20	-9.1	10
20	Angers	15	1	2	12	-27	-6.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.