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Ligue 1

Referee: F Batta

Ajaccio

T T T U T

0–0

Full-time

Toulouse

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajaccio Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,3

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 27%

18%

36%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

52%

64%

Both score Ø 49%

39%

58%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,27 xG 1,98

39% Possession 61%

4 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajaccio 19. · Toulouse 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	24	3	6	+42	+2.3	75
2	Lens	34	21	9	4	+31	+7.1	72
3	Marseille	34	21	7	6	+28	+9.6	70
4	Monaco	34	19	7	8	+17	+4.5	64
5	Lille	34	17	8	9	+19	+12.9	59
6	Rennes	34	17	5	12	+18	+2.4	56
7	Lyon	33	15	8	10	+15	+0.7	53
8	Nice	34	13	12	9	+10	+6.4	51
9	Reims	34	12	14	8	+6	+9.9	50
10	Clermont	33	14	7	12	-7	-0.8	49
11	Lorient	33	13	9	11	+1	-3.9	48
12	Montpellier	33	13	4	16	+0	-0.5	43
13	Toulouse	33	12	5	16	-7	+0.3	41
14	Brest	33	8	11	14	-11	-9.1	35
15	Auxerre	33	8	9	16	-24	-2.5	33
16	Strasbourg	33	7	11	15	-11	+0.9	32
17	Nantes	33	6	14	13	-13	-4.8	32
18	Troyes	33	4	10	19	-29	-18.1	22
19	Ajaccio	33	6	4	23	-39	-4.8	22
20	Angers	34	3	5	26	-46	-12.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	17	15	1	1	+24	+1.2	46
2	Rennes	17	13	0	4	+23	+4.4	39
3	Paris SG	17	12	2	3	+16	-1.2	38
4	Lille	17	11	4	2	+13	+9.7	37
5	Marseille	17	9	4	4	+10	+6.1	31
6	Reims	17	8	5	4	+7	+10.5	29
7	Monaco	17	9	2	6	+5	-0.6	29
8	Lyon	16	7	5	4	+10	+2.2	26
9	Lorient	16	7	4	5	+5	+2.7	25
10	Nice	17	6	6	5	+4	+2.1	24
11	Clermont	17	7	3	7	-11	+1.8	24
12	Montpellier	17	7	2	8	+1	-0.4	23
13	Toulouse	17	6	4	7	+0	+2.0	22
14	Auxerre	16	5	6	5	-7	+2.0	21
15	Nantes	16	4	8	4	-2	+0.1	20
16	Brest	16	5	5	6	-3	-2.4	20
17	Strasbourg	17	4	6	7	-3	+4.4	18
18	Troyes	16	1	9	6	-9	-9.0	12
19	Ajaccio	16	3	2	11	-16	+0.7	11
20	Angers	18	2	3	13	-17	-4.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	17	12	3	2	+18	+3.5	39
2	Paris SG	16	12	1	3	+26	+3.5	37
3	Monaco	17	10	5	2	+12	+5.1	35
4	Nice	17	7	6	4	+6	+4.3	27
5	Lyon	17	8	3	6	+5	-1.5	27
6	Lens	17	6	8	3	+7	+5.9	26
7	Clermont	16	7	4	5	+4	-2.7	25
8	Lorient	17	6	5	6	-4	-6.6	23
9	Lille	17	6	4	7	+6	+3.3	22
10	Reims	17	4	9	4	-1	-0.6	21
11	Montpellier	16	6	2	8	-1	-0.1	20
12	Toulouse	16	6	1	9	-7	-1.7	19
13	Rennes	17	4	5	8	-5	-2.0	17
14	Brest	17	3	6	8	-8	-6.7	15
15	Strasbourg	16	3	5	8	-8	-3.6	14
16	Nantes	17	2	6	9	-11	-4.8	12
17	Auxerre	17	3	3	11	-17	-4.5	12
18	Ajaccio	17	3	2	12	-23	-5.5	11
19	Troyes	17	3	1	13	-20	-9.1	10
20	Angers	16	1	2	13	-29	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.