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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Lille

S U S T U

2–1

Full-time

Marseille

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 56%

49%

63%

Points per game

1,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

51%

60%

Both score Ø 62%

60%

63%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,9

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,70 xG 0,69

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 5

14 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	35	26	3	6	+49	+7.7	81
2	Lens	35	22	9	4	+32	+6.9	75
3	Marseille	35	22	7	6	+30	+12.1	73
4	Monaco	36	19	8	9	+15	+4.0	65
5	Lille	35	17	9	9	+19	+13.1	60
6	Rennes	35	18	5	12	+22	+6.1	59
7	Lyon	36	17	8	11	+17	+2.0	59
8	Clermont	35	15	8	12	-6	-0.3	53
9	Lorient	35	14	10	11	+2	-5.5	52
10	Nice	35	13	12	10	+8	+4.8	51
11	Reims	35	12	14	9	+5	+10.2	50
12	Montpellier	36	14	5	17	+2	+0.3	47
13	Toulouse	35	12	7	16	-7	+2.2	43
14	Strasbourg	35	9	11	15	-7	+3.8	38
15	Brest	35	9	11	15	-11	-7.5	38
16	Auxerre	35	8	10	17	-25	-3.9	34
17	Nantes	36	6	15	15	-18	-7.3	33
18	Ajaccio	35	6	5	24	-44	-8.5	23
19	Troyes	35	4	10	21	-35	-25.3	22
20	Angers	35	3	5	27	-48	-15.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	18	16	1	1	+25	+1.0	49
2	Rennes	18	14	0	4	+27	+8.1	42
3	Paris SG	18	13	2	3	+21	+0.8	41
4	Lille	17	11	4	2	+13	+9.7	37
5	Marseille	18	10	4	4	+12	+8.6	34
6	Lyon	18	9	5	4	+13	+3.6	32
7	Monaco	18	9	3	6	+5	-0.8	30
8	Reims	17	8	5	4	+7	+10.5	29
9	Lorient	17	8	4	5	+6	+2.1	28
10	Clermont	18	8	3	7	-10	+1.9	27
11	Nice	17	6	6	5	+4	+2.1	24
12	Montpellier	18	7	3	8	+1	+0.7	24
13	Toulouse	18	6	5	7	+0	+2.3	23
14	Brest	17	6	5	6	-2	-1.4	23
15	Auxerre	17	5	7	5	-7	+1.6	22
16	Strasbourg	18	5	6	7	-1	+6.0	21
17	Nantes	18	4	8	6	-7	-2.2	20
18	Troyes	17	1	9	7	-11	-12.5	12
19	Ajaccio	17	3	3	11	-16	-1.0	12
20	Angers	18	2	3	13	-17	-4.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	1	3	+28	+7.0	40
2	Marseille	17	12	3	2	+18	+3.5	39
3	Monaco	18	10	5	3	+10	+4.8	35
4	Lyon	18	8	3	7	+4	-1.7	27
5	Nice	18	7	6	5	+4	+2.8	27
6	Lens	17	6	8	3	+7	+5.9	26
7	Clermont	17	7	5	5	+4	-2.3	26
8	Lorient	18	6	6	6	-4	-7.7	24
9	Lille	18	6	5	7	+6	+3.4	23
10	Montpellier	18	7	2	9	+1	-0.3	23
11	Reims	18	4	9	5	-2	-0.3	21
12	Toulouse	17	6	2	9	-7	-0.0	20
13	Rennes	17	4	5	8	-5	-2.0	17
14	Strasbourg	17	4	5	8	-6	-2.2	17
15	Brest	18	3	6	9	-9	-6.1	15
16	Nantes	18	2	7	9	-11	-5.1	13
17	Auxerre	18	3	3	12	-18	-5.5	12
18	Ajaccio	18	3	2	13	-28	-7.4	11
19	Troyes	18	3	1	14	-24	-12.8	10
20	Angers	17	1	2	14	-31	-10.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.