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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Nantes

T S T T U

1–1

Full-time

Marseille

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,94 xG 2,57

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 26

2 Shots on target 9

6 Blocked shots 5

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nantes 16. · Marseille 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.5	7
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.2	7
3	Reims	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.1	6
4	Brest	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.2	6
5	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.0	6
6	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+7.2	5
7	Lorient	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.6	5
8	Paris SG	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
9	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.6	4
10	Lille	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.1	4
11	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-1	-3.8	4
12	Metz	3	1	1	1	-3	-4.8	4
13	Nice	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.5	3
14	Le Havre	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.2	2
15	Lens	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.3	1
16	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.7	1
17	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.8	1
18	Clermont	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
2	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.6	6
3	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+4	+6.7	4
4	Lorient	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.5	4
5	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
6	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.5	3
7	Reims	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
8	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
9	Brest	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
10	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
11	Metz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
12	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
13	Lens	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
14	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.5	1
15	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
16	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
17	Clermont	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.3	0
18	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	4
2	Montpellier	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Reims	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.2	3
4	Brest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
5	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.9	3
6	Metz	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.4	3
7	Le Havre	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.3	2
8	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
9	Paris SG	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
10	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
11	Rennes	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
13	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
14	Lille	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.2	1
15	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
16	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
17	Lens	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.9	0
18	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.