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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Marseille

T T S S U

2–0

Full-time

Brest

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,97 xG 1,53

44% Possession 56%

15 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 10

2 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 6. · Brest 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.5	7
2	Brest	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
3	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.3	4
4	Montpellier	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
5	Lille	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.5	4
6	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
7	Toulouse	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.7	4
8	Reims	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
9	Strasbourg	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.0	3
10	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.7	2
11	Paris SG	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.0	2
12	Lorient	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.0	2
13	Lens	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.3	1
14	Le Havre	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
15	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.7	1
16	Metz	2	0	1	1	-4	-5.4	1
17	Lyon	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.1	0
18	Clermont	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.9	3
2	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.5	3
3	Reims	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
4	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
5	Brest	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
6	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
7	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
8	Montpellier	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
9	Metz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
10	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
11	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
12	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
13	Lens	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
14	Paris SG	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
15	Nantes	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.5	1
16	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
17	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	4
2	Montpellier	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Toulouse	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
4	Brest	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Le Havre	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
6	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
7	Paris SG	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
8	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
9	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
10	Rennes	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
11	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
12	Lens	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
13	Reims	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
14	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
15	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
16	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
17	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.5	0
18	Metz	1	0	0	1	-4	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.