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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Almeria

U U T T U

2–3

Full-time

Celta

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,98 xG 1,54

63% Possession 37%

16 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 19. · Celta 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+9	+4.0	7
3	Girona	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
4	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.5	7
5	Cadiz	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.2	7
6	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.2	6
7	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.8	6
8	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.9	6
9	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	-3	-1.3	6
10	Betis	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.0	4
11	Getafe	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.1	4
12	Sociedad	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.5	3
13	Alaves	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.8	3
14	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.5	3
15	Granada	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
16	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
17	Mallorca	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.3	1
18	Celta	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
19	Almeria	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
20	Sevilla	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
2	Getafe	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
3	Girona	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
4	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
5	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.3	3
6	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
7	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
8	Valencia	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
9	Granada	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
10	Sociedad	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
11	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
12	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
13	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
14	Villarreal	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
15	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
16	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
17	Celta	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
18	Almeria	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.3	0
19	Vallecano	1	0	0	1	-7	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
3	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.5	6
4	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+7	+2.5	4
5	Barcelona	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.1	4
6	Girona	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
7	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
8	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
9	Betis	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
10	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.2	3
11	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Almeria	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
13	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.9	1
15	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
16	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
17	Granada	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
18	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.3	0
19	Alaves	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.0	0
20	Getafe	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.