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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Toulouse

T U T S S

1–1

Full-time

Monaco

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Monaco

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,3

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 46%

38%

54%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

46%

71%

Both score Ø 57%

46%

67%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,57 xG 2,43

50% Possession 50%

8 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 8. · Monaco 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	19	5	0	+43	+40.7	62
2	Marseille	24	15	4	5	+23	+13.8	49
3	Nice	24	13	7	4	+21	+15.5	46
4	Monaco	24	13	4	7	+17	+27.6	43
5	Lille	24	11	8	5	+12	+6.1	41
6	Lyon	24	11	6	7	+13	+5.4	39
7	Strasbourg	24	10	7	7	+6	-6.2	37
8	Toulouse	24	9	6	9	+5	+11.6	33
9	Lens	24	9	6	9	+0	+4.8	33
10	Brest	24	10	3	11	-4	-9.0	33
11	Rennes	24	9	2	13	+2	+2.6	29
12	Auxerre	24	7	7	10	-4	-10.1	28
13	Angers	24	7	6	11	-12	-9.5	27
14	Nantes	24	5	9	10	-14	-10.4	24
15	Reims	24	5	7	12	-12	-16.6	22
16	Le Havre	24	6	2	16	-27	-17.2	20
17	St Etienne	24	5	4	15	-32	-30.5	19
18	Montpellier	24	4	3	17	-37	-18.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+25	+22.3	32
2	Monaco	13	9	2	2	+16	+20.5	29
3	Nice	11	8	3	0	+18	+10.7	27
4	Lille	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.8	24
5	Lyon	12	7	2	3	+9	+5.6	23
6	Auxerre	13	6	5	2	+9	+2.0	23
7	Marseille	12	6	4	2	+9	+12.6	22
8	Rennes	13	7	1	5	+9	+5.2	22
9	Strasbourg	11	6	4	1	+8	+0.8	22
10	Brest	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.7	20
11	St Etienne	12	5	2	5	-2	-4.4	17
12	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	+0	+4.0	15
13	Lens	12	4	2	6	-3	+5.1	14
14	Nantes	11	3	4	4	-1	+1.4	13
15	Montpellier	13	3	3	7	-17	-5.1	12
16	Angers	12	3	2	7	-11	-10.3	11
17	Reims	12	2	4	6	-6	-5.0	10
18	Le Havre	12	2	0	10	-21	-12.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	9	3	0	+18	+18.4	30
2	Marseille	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.2	27
3	Nice	13	5	4	4	+3	+4.9	19
4	Lens	12	5	4	3	+3	-0.3	19
5	Toulouse	12	5	3	4	+5	+7.6	18
6	Lille	12	4	5	3	+4	+6.9	17
7	Lyon	12	4	4	4	+4	-0.3	16
8	Angers	12	4	4	4	-1	+0.8	16
9	Strasbourg	13	4	3	6	-2	-7.0	15
10	Monaco	11	4	2	5	+1	+7.0	14
11	Le Havre	12	4	2	6	-6	-5.1	14
12	Brest	13	4	1	8	-10	-8.3	13
13	Reims	12	3	3	6	-6	-11.7	12
14	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-13	-11.8	11
15	Rennes	11	2	1	8	-7	-2.6	7
16	Auxerre	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.0	5
17	Montpellier	11	1	0	10	-20	-13.6	3
18	St Etienne	12	0	2	10	-30	-26.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.