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Ligue 1

Referee: W Delajod

Toulouse

U T U T U

0–1

Full-time

Paris SG

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

1,0

3,2

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 55%

33%

76%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

43%

71%

Both score Ø 62%

48%

76%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

1,1

2,8

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,88 xG 2,44

23% Possession 77%

14 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	21	16	5	0	+38	+35.9	53
2	Marseille	22	14	4	4	+24	+13.8	46
3	Monaco	22	12	4	6	+15	+23.1	40
4	Nice	21	10	7	4	+15	+12.6	37
5	Lille	21	9	8	4	+12	+7.1	35
6	Lyon	21	9	6	6	+10	+7.1	33
7	Lens	21	9	6	6	+5	+9.0	33
8	Brest	22	10	2	10	-3	-9.6	32
9	Strasbourg	21	8	6	7	+3	-6.9	30
10	Toulouse	21	7	6	8	-1	+8.4	27
11	Auxerre	22	6	7	9	-6	-12.7	25
12	Rennes	21	7	2	12	-1	+2.4	23
13	Angers	21	6	5	10	-9	-7.5	23
14	Reims	21	5	7	9	-7	-11.2	22
15	Nantes	22	4	9	9	-14	-11.8	21
16	St Etienne	22	5	3	14	-30	-28.2	18
17	Le Havre	21	5	2	14	-23	-14.4	17
18	Montpellier	21	4	3	14	-28	-17.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+22	+19.8	29
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+13	+17.2	26
3	Nice	10	7	3	0	+16	+9.4	24
4	Strasbourg	10	6	3	1	+8	+0.9	21
5	Lille	11	6	3	2	+7	+0.5	21
6	Lyon	10	6	2	2	+9	+6.9	20
7	Auxerre	11	5	5	1	+7	-0.6	20
8	Brest	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.7	20
9	Rennes	11	6	1	4	+10	+5.7	19
10	Marseille	11	5	4	2	+7	+11.4	19
11	St Etienne	10	5	1	4	+0	-2.1	16
12	Toulouse	11	4	3	4	+1	+5.6	15
13	Lens	10	4	2	4	+0	+6.7	14
14	Montpellier	11	3	3	5	-10	-4.7	12
15	Angers	11	3	2	6	-7	-7.1	11
16	Nantes	10	2	4	4	-3	-1.3	10
17	Reims	11	2	4	5	-5	-5.1	10
18	Le Havre	10	2	0	8	-16	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	11	9	0	2	+17	+2.5	27
2	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+16	+16.2	24
3	Lens	11	5	4	2	+5	+2.3	19
4	Lille	10	3	5	2	+5	+6.7	14
5	Monaco	10	4	2	4	+2	+5.8	14
6	Lyon	11	3	4	4	+1	+0.2	13
7	Nice	11	3	4	4	-1	+3.1	13
8	Reims	10	3	3	4	-2	-6.1	12
9	Toulouse	10	3	3	4	-2	+2.8	12
10	Angers	10	3	3	4	-2	-0.4	12
11	Brest	11	4	0	7	-9	-8.9	12
12	Le Havre	11	3	2	6	-7	-4.7	11
13	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-11	-10.5	11
14	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-5	-7.7	9
15	Auxerre	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.0	5
16	Rennes	10	1	1	8	-11	-3.4	4
17	Montpellier	10	1	0	9	-18	-12.4	3
18	St Etienne	12	0	2	10	-30	-26.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.