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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Monaco

S U U U S

1–2

Full-time

Toulouse

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 36%

52%

19%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

67%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

62%

57%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,67 xG 1,48

65% Possession 35%

22 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 7

12 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monaco 4. · Toulouse 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	16	5	1	+35	+20.5	53
2	Nice	22	11	6	5	+7	+9.8	39
3	Lille	22	10	8	4	+15	+12.6	38
4	Monaco	21	11	5	5	+10	+4.7	38
5	Brest	21	10	7	4	+12	+6.0	37
6	Lens	21	10	5	6	+7	+1.4	35
7	Rennes	21	8	7	6	+6	+7.8	31
8	Marseille	21	7	9	5	+6	+15.4	30
9	Reims	21	9	3	9	-2	+3.7	30
10	Strasbourg	22	6	7	9	-9	-2.7	25
11	Lyon	22	7	4	11	-11	-5.5	25
12	Le Havre	22	5	9	8	-5	-10.5	24
13	Lorient	22	5	7	10	-12	-11.9	22
14	Nantes	22	6	4	12	-12	-9.4	22
15	Montpellier	21	4	8	9	-6	-0.0	20
16	Toulouse	21	4	8	9	-9	-10.0	20
17	Metz	21	4	5	12	-14	-16.0	17
18	Clermont	21	3	7	11	-18	-15.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	2	1	+19	+13.2	26
2	Lille	11	8	2	1	+17	+15.2	26
3	Nice	11	7	3	1	+9	+8.7	24
4	Marseille	11	6	5	0	+12	+13.3	23
5	Lens	10	6	2	2	+8	+6.0	20
6	Brest	10	5	4	1	+10	+10.0	19
7	Monaco	10	6	1	3	+8	+5.6	19
8	Rennes	11	5	3	3	+7	+8.4	18
9	Reims	10	5	1	4	+0	+5.4	16
10	Strasbourg	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.3	15
11	Lyon	12	4	3	5	-4	+1.4	15
12	Le Havre	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.8	14
13	Lorient	11	3	4	4	-1	-4.4	13
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-3	-2.0	12
15	Montpellier	11	1	7	3	-2	+4.8	10
16	Toulouse	10	1	5	4	-2	+1.1	8
17	Clermont	11	1	4	6	-9	-5.4	7
18	Metz	10	1	3	6	-4	-2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	3	0	+16	+7.3	27
2	Monaco	11	5	4	2	+2	-1.0	19
3	Brest	11	5	3	3	+2	-4.0	18
4	Lens	11	4	3	4	-1	-4.6	15
5	Nice	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
6	Reims	11	4	2	5	-2	-1.7	14
7	Rennes	10	3	4	3	-1	-0.6	13
8	Lille	11	2	6	3	-2	-2.7	12
9	Toulouse	11	3	3	5	-7	-11.1	12
10	Metz	11	3	2	6	-10	-13.8	11
11	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-4.9	10
12	Le Havre	12	1	7	4	-7	-14.3	10
13	Lyon	10	3	1	6	-7	-6.8	10
14	Strasbourg	11	2	4	5	-9	-5.1	10
15	Nantes	10	3	1	6	-9	-7.4	10
16	Clermont	10	2	3	5	-9	-10.5	9
17	Lorient	11	2	3	6	-11	-7.5	9
18	Marseille	10	1	4	5	-6	+2.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.