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Ligue 1

Referee: Gael Angoula

Brest

U T T U T

3–2

Full-time

Metz

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 21%

17%

25%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 42%

42%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,11 xG 1,05

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

11 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 15. · Metz 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	3	1	+16	+11.7	30
2	Marseille	13	9	1	3	+21	+12.1	28
3	Lens	13	9	1	3	+11	+4.5	28
4	Strasbourg	13	7	1	5	+7	+7.1	22
5	Rennes	13	5	6	2	+5	-0.2	21
6	Lyon	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.8	21
7	Lille	12	6	2	4	+8	+7.0	20
8	Monaco	13	6	2	5	+0	+4.9	20
9	Nice	13	5	2	6	-5	-9.9	17
10	Toulouse	12	4	4	4	+2	+0.4	16
11	Paris FC	12	4	2	6	-3	-1.3	14
12	Le Havre	13	3	5	5	-7	-1.7	14
13	Angers	12	3	4	5	-5	-10.5	13
14	Metz	12	3	2	7	-15	-9.0	11
15	Brest	12	2	4	6	-7	-1.6	10
16	Nantes	12	2	4	6	-7	-11.5	10
17	Lorient	12	2	4	6	-12	-2.3	10
18	Auxerre	13	2	2	9	-12	-5.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.5	18
2	Marseille	6	5	1	0	+15	+11.0	16
3	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+9	+7.2	16
4	Strasbourg	6	5	0	1	+11	+10.2	15
5	Rennes	7	4	2	1	+8	+5.0	14
6	Lille	6	4	1	1	+7	+6.5	13
7	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+3	+6.5	13
8	Nice	7	4	1	2	+1	-3.0	13
9	Lyon	6	4	0	2	+4	+5.5	12
10	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.5	11
11	Toulouse	6	2	3	1	+3	+2.8	9
12	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+2	+5.8	9
13	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.4	9
14	Metz	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
15	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.5	7
16	Auxerre	7	2	1	4	-2	-0.1	7
17	Brest	6	1	3	2	-1	+3.3	6
18	Nantes	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.5	14
2	Marseille	7	4	0	3	+6	+1.1	12
3	Lens	6	3	1	2	+1	-3.9	10
4	Lyon	7	2	3	2	-1	+0.2	9
5	Lille	6	2	1	3	+1	+0.5	7
6	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.4	7
7	Monaco	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.5	7
8	Rennes	6	1	4	1	-3	-5.3	7
9	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.8	7
10	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.1	7
11	Nantes	6	1	3	2	-1	-5.4	6
12	Le Havre	7	1	2	4	-9	-7.5	5
13	Nice	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.9	4
14	Brest	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.9	4
15	Metz	6	1	0	5	-14	-8.5	3
16	Angers	6	0	2	4	-8	-8.1	2
17	Auxerre	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.4	1
18	Lorient	6	0	1	5	-12	-2.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.