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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Lorient

U S T U T

2–3

Full-time

Metz

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 21%

17%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,21 xG 1,87

68% Possession 32%

11 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 16. · Metz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	3	1	+23	+15.2	30
2	Nice	13	8	5	0	+10	+7.8	29
3	Monaco	13	7	3	3	+8	+4.5	24
4	Lille	12	5	5	2	+4	+6.2	20
5	Reims	12	6	2	4	+2	+2.3	20
6	Lens	13	5	4	4	+3	+4.0	19
7	Le Havre	12	3	6	3	-1	-5.7	15
8	Brest	11	4	3	4	-2	+1.1	15
9	Marseille	12	3	5	4	-1	+8.3	14
10	Nantes	12	4	2	6	-6	-6.2	14
11	Montpellier	11	3	4	4	+1	+2.7	13
12	Metz	12	3	4	5	-6	-9.8	13
13	Strasbourg	12	3	4	5	-6	-3.4	13
14	Rennes	12	2	6	4	+0	+3.3	12
15	Toulouse	13	2	6	5	-4	-10.3	12
16	Lorient	12	2	5	5	-6	-8.2	11
17	Clermont	12	2	3	7	-9	-5.7	9
18	Lyon	11	1	4	6	-10	-6.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	1	1	+14	+6.5	16
2	Monaco	6	5	0	1	+9	+2.7	15
3	Nice	7	4	3	0	+6	+4.6	15
4	Lille	6	4	1	1	+5	+6.2	13
5	Marseille	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.7	11
6	Lens	6	3	2	1	+5	+6.4	11
7	Rennes	7	2	3	2	+3	+5.1	9
8	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+1	-3.7	9
9	Strasbourg	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.8	9
10	Reims	6	3	0	3	-1	+3.5	9
11	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+2	-1.9	8
12	Brest	5	2	2	1	+1	+5.0	8
13	Le Havre	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.4	8
14	Toulouse	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.4	6
15	Montpellier	5	1	3	1	+1	+2.2	6
16	Metz	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.8	6
17	Clermont	7	1	1	5	-7	-3.9	4
18	Lyon	6	0	3	3	-7	-1.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+9	+8.7	14
2	Nice	6	4	2	0	+4	+3.2	14
3	Reims	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.2	11
4	Monaco	7	2	3	2	-1	+1.7	9
5	Lens	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.4	8
6	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.5	7
7	Lille	6	1	4	1	-1	+0.0	7
8	Le Havre	6	1	4	1	-2	-8.1	7
9	Brest	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.8	7
10	Metz	6	2	1	3	-6	-8.0	7
11	Toulouse	8	1	3	4	-6	-9.9	6
12	Nantes	6	2	0	4	-8	-4.3	6
13	Clermont	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.9	5
14	Lyon	5	1	1	3	-3	-4.1	4
15	Strasbourg	5	1	1	3	-7	-5.2	4
16	Rennes	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.8	3
17	Marseille	7	0	3	4	-7	+2.7	3
18	Lorient	6	0	2	4	-7	-4.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.