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Ligue 1

Referee: Romain Lissorgue

Metz

S S T T T

2–3

Full-time

Paris SG

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

20%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 40%

47%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,62 xG 1,85

41% Possession 59%

9 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 18. · Paris SG 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	11	1	3	+13	+6.6	34
2	Paris SG	15	10	3	2	+20	+14.5	33
3	Marseille	15	9	2	4	+20	+13.4	29
4	Lille	15	9	2	4	+12	+9.8	29
5	Rennes	16	7	6	3	+3	-1.1	27
6	Lyon	15	7	3	5	+5	+5.1	24
7	Monaco	15	7	2	6	+0	+3.2	23
8	Strasbourg	15	7	1	7	+5	+6.4	22
9	Angers	16	6	4	6	-1	-11.4	22
10	Toulouse	15	5	5	5	+2	+1.3	20
11	Brest	16	5	4	7	-6	+0.2	19
12	Nice	15	5	2	8	-8	-10.9	17
13	Lorient	15	4	5	6	-9	+0.9	17
14	Paris FC	15	4	4	7	-5	-3.7	16
15	Le Havre	15	3	6	6	-8	-1.6	15
16	Auxerre	15	3	3	9	-10	-4.8	12
17	Nantes	16	2	5	9	-14	-15.6	11
18	Metz	15	3	2	10	-19	-12.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+14	+9.2	19
2	Lille	8	6	1	1	+10	+8.8	19
3	Lens	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.5	18
4	Marseille	7	5	2	0	+15	+12.1	17
5	Rennes	8	5	2	1	+10	+6.4	17
6	Monaco	8	5	1	2	+4	+5.7	16
7	Strasbourg	7	5	0	2	+10	+10.0	15
8	Lyon	7	5	0	2	+7	+7.0	15
9	Lorient	8	4	3	1	+3	+4.1	15
10	Angers	8	4	2	2	+5	-1.3	14
11	Nice	8	4	1	3	+0	-2.5	13
12	Toulouse	8	3	3	2	+3	+4.8	12
13	Brest	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.3	12
14	Le Havre	8	2	4	2	+1	+6.0	10
15	Auxerre	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.2	10
16	Paris FC	7	2	2	3	+0	+2.2	8
17	Metz	7	2	2	3	-2	-0.3	8
18	Nantes	8	1	2	5	-7	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	8	5	1	2	+3	-1.9	16
2	Paris SG	8	4	2	2	+6	+5.3	14
3	Marseille	8	4	0	4	+5	+1.2	12
4	Lille	7	3	1	3	+2	+1.0	10
5	Rennes	8	2	4	2	-7	-7.5	10
6	Lyon	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.9	9
7	Toulouse	7	2	2	3	-1	-3.5	8
8	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-5	-5.9	8
9	Angers	8	2	2	4	-6	-10.1	8
10	Monaco	7	2	1	4	-4	-2.5	7
11	Strasbourg	8	2	1	5	-5	-3.6	7
12	Brest	8	2	1	5	-7	-6.1	7
13	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-7	-8.9	6
14	Le Havre	7	1	2	4	-9	-7.5	5
15	Nice	7	1	1	5	-8	-8.5	4
16	Metz	8	1	0	7	-17	-11.9	3
17	Auxerre	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.1	2
18	Lorient	7	0	2	5	-12	-3.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.