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Ligue 1
Referee: Ruddy Buquet
Marseille
T U T S S
4–0
Full-time
Strasbourg
T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Strasbourg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,86 xG 0,18
67% Possession 33%
14 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 4
6 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

14. Feb -26 Marseille – Strasbourg 2–2 26. Sep -25 Strasbourg – Marseille 1–2 19. Jan -25 Marseille – Strasbourg 1–1 29. Sep -24 Strasbourg – Marseille 1–0 12. Jan -24 Marseille – Strasbourg 1–1

Match report

Marseille Strasbourg
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Amine Gouiri ⚽
Angel Gomes
46′
48′
🟨 Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
58′
ℹ️ Samir El Mourabet
VAR: Card upgrade
59′
🟥 Samir El Mourabet
61′
🟨 Sékou Mara
Igor Paixão ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
65′
2–0 Amine Gouiri ⚽
68′
69′
🔁 Jacobo Ortega
↦ Sékou Mara
69′
🔁 Giovanni Reyna
↦ Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
69′
🔁 Pape Diop
↦ Diogo Sousa
Nayef Aguerd 🔁
↦ Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley
75′
Nayef Aguerd 🟨
79′
79′
🔁 Fabio Baldé
↦ Sebastian Nanasi
79′
🔁 Mateo Del Blanco
↦ Genesis Antwi
Keyliane Abdallah 🔁
↦ Amine Harit
83′
Tochukwu Nnadi 🔁
↦ Himad Abdelli
83′
Derek Cornelius 🔁
↦ Geoffrey Kondogbia
83′
3–0 Keyliane Abdallah ⚽
89′
Neal Maupay 🔁
↦ Angel Gomes
90′
4–0 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg ⚽
96′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Marseille

4-2-3-1
12 Jeffrey De Lange G
22 Timothy Weah D
4 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley D
19 Geoffrey Kondogbia D
33 Emerson D
8 Himad Abdelli M
23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg M
77 Amine Harit M
7 Angel Gomes M
14 Igor Paixão M
9 Amine Gouiri F
Bench (9)
21 Nayef Aguerd
13 Derek Cornelius
6 Tochukwu Nnadi
48 Keyliane Abdallah
11 Neal Maupay
92 Théo Vermot
25 Ulisses Garcia
74 Kelyann Bezahaf
43 Tadjidine Mmadi

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Strasbourg

4-2-3-1
1 Filip Jørgensen G
22 Guéla Doué D
2 Andrew Omobamidele D
24 Lucas Høgsberg D
16 Genesis Antwi D
23 Diogo Sousa M
29 Samir El Mourabet M
7 Samuel Amo-Ameyaw M
11 Sebastian Nanasi M
80 Gessime Yassine M
14 Sékou Mara F
Bench (9)
10 Giovanni Reyna
21 Pape Diop
30 Jacobo Ortega
15 Mateo Del Blanco
19 Fabio Baldé
12 Miłosz Piekutowski
4 Jeyland Mitchell
17 Mathis Amougou
37 Ghianny Kodia

Coach: Hugo Oliveira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,72
🔒
U
4,05
🔒
B
4,28
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,51
🔒
U2,5
2,46
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Ruddy Buquet · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.