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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Marseille

S T U T S

3–1

Full-time

Rennes

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Rennes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 52%

52%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

61%

70%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

58%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,92 xG 2,49

45% Possession 55%

27 Shots 27

11 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 8

4 Corners 11

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 6. · Rennes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	24	4	5	+46	+42.0	76
2	Lens	33	21	4	8	+27	+24.3	67
3	Lille	33	18	7	8	+17	+17.4	61
4	Lyon	33	18	6	9	+17	+8.0	60
5	Rennes	33	17	8	8	+11	+1.6	59
6	Marseille	33	17	5	11	+16	+13.4	56
7	Monaco	33	16	6	11	+7	+8.1	54
8	Strasbourg	33	14	8	11	+10	+7.8	50
9	Lorient	33	11	12	10	-1	-1.1	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	+1	-0.1	44
11	Paris FC	33	10	11	12	-4	-12.4	41
12	Brest	33	10	8	15	-12	-6.8	38
13	Angers	33	9	8	16	-19	-22.6	35
14	Le Havre	33	6	14	13	-14	-12.9	32
15	Auxerre	33	7	10	16	-12	-11.6	31
16	Nice	33	7	10	16	-23	-16.6	31
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	-11.7	23
18	Metz	33	3	7	23	-44	-26.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	17	14	0	3	+22	+21.5	42
2	Paris SG	17	13	2	2	+29	+24.9	41
3	Lyon	16	12	1	3	+16	+11.2	37
4	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+19	+13.2	34
5	Rennes	17	10	4	3	+13	+7.0	34
6	Monaco	17	10	2	5	+10	+9.8	32
7	Lorient	16	8	6	2	+8	+5.6	30
8	Lille	16	8	5	3	+9	+13.3	29
9	Strasbourg	16	8	3	5	+10	+10.9	27
10	Brest	16	7	4	5	+5	+5.7	25
11	Toulouse	17	6	6	5	+1	+5.8	24
12	Le Havre	17	5	8	4	+2	+1.2	23
13	Angers	17	6	5	6	-2	-8.7	23
14	Auxerre	17	6	4	7	+1	-0.2	22
15	Paris FC	16	6	4	6	+0	-3.2	22
16	Nice	16	4	7	5	-8	-4.4	19
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-9	-4.8	12
18	Metz	17	2	4	11	-17	-3.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	2	3	+17	+17.1	35
2	Lille	17	10	2	5	+8	+4.2	32
3	Lens	16	7	4	5	+5	+2.8	25
4	Rennes	16	7	4	5	-2	-5.4	25
5	Lyon	17	6	5	6	+1	-3.2	23
6	Strasbourg	17	6	5	6	+0	-3.1	23
7	Monaco	16	6	4	6	-3	-1.7	22
8	Marseille	17	7	1	9	-3	+0.1	22
9	Toulouse	16	6	2	8	+0	-6.0	20
10	Paris FC	17	4	7	6	-4	-9.2	19
11	Lorient	17	3	6	8	-9	-6.7	15
12	Brest	17	3	4	10	-17	-12.5	13
13	Nice	17	3	3	11	-15	-12.2	12
14	Angers	16	3	3	10	-17	-13.9	12
15	Nantes	17	2	5	10	-14	-6.9	11
16	Auxerre	16	1	6	9	-13	-11.4	9
17	Le Havre	16	1	6	9	-16	-14.1	9
18	Metz	16	1	3	12	-27	-23.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.