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Ligue 1

Referee: G Angoula

Strasbourg

S T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Toulouse

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,7

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 38%

43%

32%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

63%

52%

Both score Ø 53%

60%

45%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,41 xG 1,36

54% Possession 46%

9 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Strasbourg 8. · Toulouse 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	22	4	5	+43	+42.3	70
2	Lens	31	20	4	7	+28	+23.1	64
3	Lille	32	17	7	8	+16	+17.4	58
4	Lyon	31	17	6	8	+16	+5.2	57
5	Rennes	31	16	8	7	+12	+3.3	56
6	Monaco	32	16	6	10	+8	+8.2	54
7	Marseille	32	16	5	11	+15	+13.3	53
8	Strasbourg	30	13	7	10	+10	+8.4	46
9	Lorient	32	10	12	10	-5	-2.4	42
10	Toulouse	31	10	8	13	-1	-0.7	38
11	Brest	30	10	8	12	-6	-5.5	38
12	Paris FC	31	9	11	11	-7	-12.9	38
13	Angers	31	9	7	15	-17	-21.4	34
14	Le Havre	32	6	14	12	-13	-12.8	32
15	Nice	32	7	10	15	-22	-17.1	31
16	Auxerre	31	5	10	16	-15	-10.9	25
17	Nantes	32	5	8	19	-22	-12.1	23
18	Metz	32	3	7	22	-40	-25.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	0	2	+23	+20.3	39
2	Paris SG	16	12	2	2	+28	+23.5	38
3	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+19	+13.2	34
4	Lyon	15	11	1	3	+14	+8.9	34
5	Monaco	16	10	2	4	+11	+9.8	32
6	Rennes	16	9	4	3	+12	+6.4	31
7	Lorient	16	8	6	2	+8	+5.6	30
8	Lille	16	8	5	3	+9	+13.3	29
9	Strasbourg	15	8	3	4	+11	+11.9	27
10	Brest	15	7	4	4	+6	+4.7	25
11	Le Havre	16	5	8	3	+3	+1.2	23
12	Angers	16	6	4	6	-2	-7.3	22
13	Toulouse	16	5	6	5	+0	+6.2	21
14	Paris FC	15	5	4	6	-4	-4.3	19
15	Nice	16	4	7	5	-8	-4.4	19
16	Auxerre	15	4	4	7	-2	+0.5	16
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-9	-4.8	12
18	Metz	16	2	4	10	-13	-2.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	10	2	3	+15	+18.8	32
2	Lille	16	9	2	5	+7	+4.1	29
3	Lens	16	7	4	5	+5	+2.8	25
4	Rennes	15	7	4	4	+0	-3.1	25
5	Lyon	16	6	5	5	+2	-3.6	23
6	Monaco	16	6	4	6	-3	-1.7	22
7	Strasbourg	15	5	4	6	-1	-3.5	19
8	Paris FC	16	4	7	5	-3	-8.6	19
9	Marseille	16	6	1	9	-4	+0.1	19
10	Toulouse	15	5	2	8	-1	-6.9	17
11	Brest	15	3	4	8	-12	-10.2	13
12	Lorient	16	2	6	8	-13	-8.0	12
13	Nice	16	3	3	10	-14	-12.7	12
14	Angers	15	3	3	9	-15	-14.1	12
15	Nantes	16	2	5	9	-13	-7.4	11
16	Auxerre	16	1	6	9	-13	-11.4	9
17	Le Havre	16	1	6	9	-16	-14.1	9
18	Metz	16	1	3	12	-27	-23.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.