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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Ajax

S S U T S

4–1

Full-time

Waalwijk

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

4,3

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 36%

47%

24%

Points per game

1,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

88%

59%

Both score Ø 65%

76%

53%

Average goals

4,1

2,7

Scored

2,2

0,9

Conceded

1,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,46 xG 1,66

68% Possession 32%

14 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 0

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 5. · Waalwijk 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	18	17	1	0	+52	+40.3	52
2	Feyenoord	18	13	3	2	+35	+36.8	42
3	Twente	18	11	4	3	+15	+11.9	37
4	AZ Alkmaar	18	10	4	4	+20	+12.4	34
5	Ajax	17	8	4	5	+6	+5.1	28
6	Go Ahead Eagles	17	7	4	6	+4	-7.2	25
7	Sparta Rotterdam	18	7	4	7	+0	-6.0	25
8	Nijmegen	17	6	6	5	+4	-12.4	24
9	Excelsior	18	4	8	6	-4	-8.5	20
10	Zwolle	18	5	5	8	-5	-6.7	20
11	Heerenveen	18	6	2	10	-9	-3.9	20
12	Utrecht	18	4	7	7	-9	-10.1	19
13	For Sittard	17	5	4	8	-13	-1.3	19
14	Almere City	17	5	4	8	-15	-6.7	19
15	Heracles	18	5	4	9	-18	-10.4	19
16	Waalwijk	17	4	2	11	-14	-4.5	14
17	Volendam	18	3	3	12	-23	-13.6	12
18	Vitesse	18	3	3	12	-26	-15.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+24	+23.5	27
2	Twente	9	7	1	1	+7	+6.3	22
3	Feyenoord	9	6	2	1	+18	+15.9	20
4	AZ Alkmaar	10	6	2	2	+14	+12.4	20
5	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+4	+7.3	17
6	Go Ahead Eagles	9	5	1	3	+10	+4.6	16
7	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+9	+7.2	16
8	Nijmegen	9	4	2	3	+6	+1.4	14
9	Heerenveen	8	4	1	3	+5	+6.8	13
10	Excelsior	9	2	5	2	+0	+0.6	11
11	Heracles	9	3	2	4	-9	-5.2	11
12	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-5	-0.5	9
13	Zwolle	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.2	8
14	Utrecht	9	1	5	3	-7	-4.7	8
15	Almere City	8	2	2	4	-7	-2.4	8
16	Waalwijk	9	2	1	6	-8	-3.4	7
17	Volendam	8	2	1	5	-9	+0.3	7
18	Vitesse	9	1	3	5	-7	-4.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	8	1	0	+28	+16.8	25
2	Feyenoord	9	7	1	1	+17	+20.9	22
3	Sparta Rotterdam	9	5	1	3	+5	-5.5	16
4	Twente	9	4	3	2	+8	+5.5	15
5	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	2	2	+6	-0.0	14
6	Zwolle	9	3	3	3	+1	-6.9	12
7	Ajax	9	3	3	3	-3	-2.1	12
8	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-2	-5.4	11
9	Almere City	9	3	2	4	-8	-4.3	11
10	Nijmegen	8	2	4	2	-2	-13.8	10
11	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.1	9
12	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	3	3	-6	-11.7	9
13	Heracles	9	2	2	5	-9	-5.2	8
14	Waalwijk	8	2	1	5	-6	-1.0	7
15	Heerenveen	10	2	1	7	-14	-10.7	7
16	Vitesse	9	2	0	7	-19	-10.4	6
17	Volendam	10	1	2	7	-14	-13.9	5
18	For Sittard	8	0	2	6	-17	-8.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.