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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Ajax

U S T S S

2–1

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,3

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

43%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

86%

57%

Both score Ø 64%

71%

57%

Average goals

4,1

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,4

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,42 xG 1,08

56% Possession 44%

23 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 6. · Sparta Rotterdam 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	15	0	0	+46	+34.6	45
2	Feyenoord	15	11	2	2	+30	+29.7	35
3	Twente	15	10	3	2	+15	+12.2	33
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	3	2	+22	+13.7	30
5	Go Ahead Eagles	13	6	3	4	+5	-8.1	21
6	Ajax	14	6	3	5	+4	+2.9	21
7	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	3	5	+1	-1.5	21
8	Heerenveen	15	6	1	8	-5	-3.3	19
9	Zwolle	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.6	17
10	Excelsior	15	3	7	5	-5	-8.1	16
11	For Sittard	14	4	4	6	-9	-2.5	16
12	Heracles	14	4	3	7	-13	-8.2	15
13	Nijmegen	13	3	5	5	-2	-12.8	14
14	Utrecht	14	3	4	7	-11	-10.5	13
15	Waalwijk	14	4	1	9	-12	-4.4	13
16	Almere City	14	3	4	7	-18	-8.2	13
17	Vitesse	14	2	2	10	-22	-10.8	8
18	Volendam	15	2	2	11	-23	-10.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+22	+20.3	24
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+18	+14.1	19
3	Twente	8	6	1	1	+6	+5.9	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	7	5	1	1	+15	+13.3	16
5	Go Ahead Eagles	7	5	1	1	+13	+3.1	16
6	For Sittard	7	4	2	1	+5	+4.5	14
7	Heerenveen	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.4	13
8	Ajax	6	4	0	2	+8	+4.1	12
9	Heracles	7	3	1	3	-5	-3.5	10
10	Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	+2	-1.3	8
11	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.5	8
12	Excelsior	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.3	7
13	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-4	+1.2	7
14	Waalwijk	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.0	7
15	Volendam	7	2	1	4	-8	+1.2	7
16	Utrecht	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.9	6
17	Almere City	7	1	2	4	-12	-3.9	5
18	Vitesse	6	0	2	4	-8	-1.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+24	+14.3	21
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+12	+15.6	16
3	Twente	7	4	2	1	+9	+6.3	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	2	1	+7	+0.4	14
5	Sparta Rotterdam	7	4	1	2	+4	-1.1	13
6	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.9	10
7	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-2	-5.9	9
8	Ajax	8	2	3	3	-4	-1.1	9
9	Almere City	7	2	2	3	-6	-4.3	8
10	Utrecht	7	2	1	4	-4	-5.6	7
11	Nijmegen	6	1	3	2	-4	-11.5	6
12	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-5	-0.4	6
13	Heerenveen	8	2	0	6	-11	-9.7	6
14	Vitesse	8	2	0	6	-14	-8.8	6
15	Heracles	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.7	5
16	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
17	For Sittard	7	0	2	5	-14	-7.0	2
18	Volendam	8	0	1	7	-15	-12.1	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.