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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

Ajax

T S S S S

2–2

Full-time

Zwolle

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Zwolle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,5

3,2

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 40%

47%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

87%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

73%

60%

Average goals

4,1

3,1

Scored

2,2

1,4

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,45 xG 1,64

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 0

4 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 5. · Zwolle 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	15	0	0	+46	+34.6	45
2	Feyenoord	16	12	2	2	+34	+32.7	38
3	Twente	16	10	4	2	+15	+12.5	34
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	10	3	2	+25	+14.6	33
5	Ajax	15	7	3	5	+5	+5.3	24
6	Go Ahead Eagles	15	6	4	5	+3	-8.0	22
7	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	4	6	+0	-4.1	22
8	Nijmegen	15	5	5	5	+3	-11.6	20
9	Heerenveen	16	6	1	9	-6	-2.9	19
10	For Sittard	16	5	4	7	-11	-3.4	19
11	Excelsior	16	3	8	5	-5	-7.7	17
12	Zwolle	15	5	2	8	-5	-3.2	17
13	Utrecht	16	4	5	7	-9	-11.2	17
14	Almere City	16	4	4	8	-16	-7.6	16
15	Heracles	16	4	3	9	-19	-11.2	15
16	Waalwijk	16	4	2	10	-13	-5.0	14
17	Volendam	16	3	2	11	-22	-11.4	11
18	Vitesse	16	3	2	11	-25	-12.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+22	+20.3	24
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+18	+14.1	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	+18	+14.2	19
4	Twente	8	6	1	1	+6	+5.9	19
5	For Sittard	8	5	2	1	+6	+5.3	17
6	Go Ahead Eagles	8	5	1	2	+11	+3.6	16
7	Ajax	7	5	0	2	+9	+6.4	15
8	Heerenveen	8	4	1	3	+5	+6.8	13
9	Nijmegen	8	3	2	3	+5	+0.4	11
10	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-9	-6.5	10
11	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	3	3	-3	-0.7	9
12	Excelsior	8	1	5	2	-3	-1.9	8
13	Almere City	8	2	2	4	-7	-2.4	8
14	Zwolle	8	2	1	5	-6	+1.6	7
15	Utrecht	8	1	4	3	-7	-5.1	7
16	Waalwijk	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.0	7
17	Volendam	7	2	1	4	-8	+1.2	7
18	Vitesse	7	1	2	4	-6	-2.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+24	+14.3	21
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+16	+18.6	19
3	Twente	8	4	3	1	+9	+6.5	15
4	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	2	1	+7	+0.4	14
5	Sparta Rotterdam	8	4	1	3	+3	-3.4	13
6	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.9	10
7	Utrecht	8	3	1	4	-2	-6.1	10
8	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-2	-5.9	9
9	Nijmegen	7	2	3	2	-2	-11.9	9
10	Ajax	8	2	3	3	-4	-1.1	9
11	Almere City	8	2	2	4	-9	-5.2	8
12	Waalwijk	8	2	1	5	-6	-1.0	7
13	Go Ahead Eagles	7	1	3	3	-8	-11.5	6
14	Heerenveen	8	2	0	6	-11	-9.7	6
15	Vitesse	9	2	0	7	-19	-10.4	6
16	Heracles	8	1	2	5	-10	-4.6	5
17	Volendam	9	1	1	7	-14	-12.6	4
18	For Sittard	8	0	2	6	-17	-8.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.