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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

AZ Alkmaar

U U T T U

1–1

Full-time

NAC Breda

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 27/29 matches

Win Ø 35%

41%

28%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

59%

52%

Both score Ø 58%

56%

59%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,40 xG 0,44

71% Possession 29%

18 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 7. · NAC Breda 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	30	23	4	3	+36	+28.8	73
2	PSV Eindhoven	29	20	4	5	+53	+39.1	64
3	Feyenoord	29	17	8	4	+32	+24.2	59
4	Utrecht	30	17	8	5	+15	+2.9	59
5	Go Ahead Eagles	29	13	7	9	+6	+10.4	46
6	Twente	27	12	9	6	+13	+14.0	45
7	AZ Alkmaar	27	11	7	9	+5	+10.3	40
8	Heerenveen	29	10	7	12	-7	-2.2	37
9	Groningen	30	9	8	13	-13	-8.6	35
10	Heracles	30	8	11	11	-15	-15.5	35
11	Sparta Rotterdam	29	8	10	11	-3	+2.0	34
12	Nijmegen	28	9	6	13	+1	+1.4	33
13	For Sittard	29	9	6	14	-16	-7.4	33
14	Zwolle	29	7	10	12	-9	-21.4	31
15	NAC Breda	29	8	7	14	-18	-15.3	31
16	Willem II	29	6	6	17	-19	-25.4	24
17	Waalwijk	29	4	7	18	-23	-19.3	19
18	Almere City	30	4	7	19	-38	-18.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	14	12	2	0	+25	+19.6	38
2	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	3	1	+34	+25.0	36
3	Go Ahead Eagles	15	9	4	2	+12	+13.8	31
4	Feyenoord	14	9	3	2	+15	+15.1	30
5	Heerenveen	15	8	6	1	+12	+7.6	30
6	Utrecht	16	9	2	5	+4	+6.6	29
7	Twente	13	8	4	1	+14	+13.2	28
8	Groningen	15	7	5	3	+8	+3.5	26
9	Heracles	15	6	7	2	+6	+4.4	25
10	NAC Breda	15	6	5	4	+1	+0.6	23
11	Zwolle	15	6	3	6	+2	-4.3	21
12	Nijmegen	15	5	5	5	+9	+6.6	20
13	Sparta Rotterdam	15	4	6	5	+0	+4.8	18
14	For Sittard	14	6	0	8	-9	+0.5	18
15	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	2	5	+1	+9.6	17
16	Willem II	15	3	3	9	-5	-10.7	12
17	Waalwijk	14	3	3	8	-6	-5.7	12
18	Almere City	14	2	3	9	-20	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	16	11	2	3	+11	+9.2	35
2	Utrecht	14	8	6	0	+11	-3.7	30
3	Feyenoord	15	8	5	2	+17	+9.1	29
4	PSV Eindhoven	14	9	1	4	+19	+14.1	28
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	5	4	+4	+0.7	23
6	Twente	14	4	5	5	-1	+0.7	17
7	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	4	6	-3	-2.8	16
8	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	3	7	-6	-3.3	15
9	For Sittard	15	3	6	6	-7	-7.9	15
10	Nijmegen	13	4	1	8	-8	-5.2	13
11	Willem II	14	3	3	8	-14	-14.6	12
12	Zwolle	14	1	7	6	-11	-17.1	10
13	Almere City	16	2	4	10	-18	-16.1	10
14	Heracles	15	2	4	9	-21	-20.0	10
15	Groningen	15	2	3	10	-21	-12.1	9
16	NAC Breda	14	2	2	10	-19	-15.9	8
17	Waalwijk	15	1	4	10	-17	-13.6	7
18	Heerenveen	14	2	1	11	-19	-9.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.