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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Ajax

T S T U S

3–1

Full-time

NAC Breda

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 54%

78%

30%

Points per game

2,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,99 xG 0,66

63% Possession 37%

10 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 0

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · NAC Breda 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	27	21	4	2	+37	+25.5	67
2	PSV Eindhoven	28	19	4	5	+48	+34.9	61
3	Feyenoord	28	16	8	4	+30	+22.8	56
4	Utrecht	28	15	8	5	+9	+2.3	53
5	Go Ahead Eagles	28	13	6	9	+6	+11.2	45
6	Twente	26	12	8	6	+13	+14.8	44
7	AZ Alkmaar	26	11	7	8	+6	+11.1	40
8	Heerenveen	27	9	7	11	-6	-0.9	34
9	For Sittard	28	9	6	13	-14	-6.0	33
10	Heracles	28	7	11	10	-13	-14.8	32
11	Groningen	28	8	8	12	-14	-9.7	32
12	Sparta Rotterdam	28	7	10	11	-5	+0.5	31
13	Nijmegen	27	8	6	13	+0	+1.2	30
14	Zwolle	28	7	9	12	-9	-22.3	30
15	NAC Breda	27	8	6	13	-16	-14.7	30
16	Willem II	28	6	6	16	-18	-23.3	24
17	Waalwijk	28	4	7	17	-22	-19.0	19
18	Almere City	28	4	7	17	-32	-13.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	13	11	2	0	+23	+18.3	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	3	1	+29	+20.8	33
3	Go Ahead Eagles	15	9	4	2	+12	+13.8	31
4	Feyenoord	14	9	3	2	+15	+15.1	30
5	Twente	13	8	4	1	+14	+13.2	28
6	Heerenveen	14	7	6	1	+11	+7.4	27
7	Groningen	14	6	5	3	+5	+1.9	23
8	Utrecht	14	7	2	5	-2	+6.0	23
9	Heracles	14	5	7	2	+5	+3.5	22
10	NAC Breda	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.2	22
11	Zwolle	14	6	2	6	+2	-5.2	20
12	For Sittard	13	6	0	7	-7	+1.9	18
13	Nijmegen	14	4	5	5	+8	+6.4	17
14	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	2	5	+1	+9.6	17
15	Sparta Rotterdam	14	3	6	5	-2	+3.3	15
16	Willem II	14	3	3	8	-4	-8.7	12
17	Waalwijk	14	3	3	8	-6	-5.7	12
18	Almere City	14	2	3	9	-20	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	14	10	2	2	+14	+7.3	32
2	Utrecht	14	8	6	0	+11	-3.7	30
3	PSV Eindhoven	14	9	1	4	+19	+14.1	28
4	Feyenoord	14	7	5	2	+15	+7.7	26
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	5	3	+5	+1.5	23
6	Twente	13	4	4	5	-1	+1.6	16
7	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	4	6	-3	-2.8	16
8	For Sittard	15	3	6	6	-7	-7.9	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	2	7	-6	-2.6	14
10	Nijmegen	13	4	1	8	-8	-5.2	13
11	Willem II	14	3	3	8	-14	-14.6	12
12	Zwolle	14	1	7	6	-11	-17.1	10
13	Almere City	14	2	4	8	-12	-11.6	10
14	Heracles	14	2	4	8	-18	-18.4	10
15	Groningen	14	2	3	9	-19	-11.5	9
16	NAC Breda	13	2	2	9	-17	-14.5	8
17	Waalwijk	14	1	4	9	-16	-13.4	7
18	Heerenveen	13	2	1	10	-17	-8.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.