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Eredivisie

Referee: Ed Peter Janssen

AZ Alkmaar

S T T S S

2–1

Full-time

NAC Breda

T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

4,7

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

3,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-2,0

This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,3

4,7

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

3,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%

16 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 8. · NAC Breda 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Vitesse	4	3	0	1	+7	9
3	Ajax	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Zwolle	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Utrecht	3	2	0	1	+4	6
8	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	VVV Venlo	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Heracles	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Groningen	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Excelsior	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Den Haag	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-3	2
15	NAC Breda	3	0	1	2	-6	1
16	Twente	3	0	0	3	-4	0
17	Roda	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	Willem II	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Zwolle	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Heerenveen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Heracles	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Vitesse	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	VVV Venlo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	NAC Breda	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Twente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Willem II	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Roda	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Den Haag	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vitesse	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Heerenveen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Excelsior	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+2	3
6	PSV Eindhoven	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Ajax	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	VVV Venlo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Den Haag	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Heracles	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	1	1	-3	1
13	Zwolle	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Groningen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Twente	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	Roda	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Willem II	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.