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Primeira Liga

Porto

U S S S T

4–0

Full-time

Setubal

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/1 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,2

0,0

Scored

2,3

0,0

Conceded

0,8

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

0,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

23 Shots 6

10 Shots on target 5

7 Corners 0

16 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 14. · Setubal 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Tondela	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Maritimo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Portimonense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Setubal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Vitoria Setubal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Porto	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Aves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Maritimo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Portimonense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Setubal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Vitoria Setubal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
12	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Tondela	2	0	2	0	+0	2
4	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Belenenses	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Porto	1	0	0	1	-1	0
7	Aves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
10	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-3	0
11	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.