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Eredivisie
Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie
VVV Venlo
U S T S T
1–4
Full-time
Ajax
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

VVV Venlo Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
4,7
4,3
Scored
2,5
3,3
Conceded
2,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+2,3
This season — Eredivisie · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,5
4,5
Scored
2,0
3,5
Conceded
2,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+2,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

25% Possession 75%
7 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 9
0 Blocked shots 7
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 13
3 Offside 0
4 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match VVV Venlo 10. · Ajax 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Vitesse 3 2 1 0 +5 7
2 AZ Alkmaar 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 Utrecht 2 2 0 0 +4 6
4 Ajax 2 1 1 0 +5 4
5 Heerenveen 2 1 1 0 +4 4
6 Sparta Rotterdam 2 1 1 0 +3 4
7 Twente 2 1 1 0 +2 4
8 PSV Eindhoven 2 1 1 0 +2 4
9 Willem II 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 VVV Venlo 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Groningen 2 1 0 1 -1 3
12 Feyenoord 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Heracles 2 0 1 1 -4 1
14 For Sittard 2 0 1 1 -4 1
15 Den Haag 2 0 0 2 -4 0
16 Waalwijk 2 0 0 2 -4 0
17 FC Emmen 2 0 0 2 -6 0
18 Zwolle 3 0 0 3 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

VVV Venlo Ajax
27′
🟨 Lisandro Martínez
Peter van Ooijen 🟨
33′
41′
🔁 David Neres
↦ Q. Promes
42′
🟨 Donny van de Beek
44′
H. Ziyech 0–1
D. Tadić
Half-time 0–1
C. Kum 🔁
↦ S. Schäfer
46′
Roel Janssen 🟨
48′
49′
D. Tadić 0–2
59′
🔁 K. Huntelaar
↦ H. Ziyech
66′
K. Huntelaar 0–3
N. Tagliafico
H. Wright 🔁
↦ J. Sinclair
71′
73′
🔁 E. Álvarez
↦ L. Martínez
76′
David Neres 0–4
D. van de Beek
S. Scheimann 🔁
↦ E. Soriano
84′
1–4 E. Linthorst
R. Neudecker
89′
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

VVV Venlo

4-3-3
1 T. Kirschbaum G
4 R. Janssen D
13 N. Röseler D
2 T. Pachonik D
5 S. Schäfer D
20 D. van Bruggen M
8 P. van Ooijen F
11 R. Neudecker M
21 E. Linthorst M
9 E. Soriano F
15 J. Sinclair F
Bench (7)
14 C. Kum
7 H. Wright
18 S. Scheimann
30 J. Craenmehr
17 T. Dekker
22 L. Bosch
10 J. Opoku

Coach: R. Maaskant

Ajax

4-3-3
24 A. Onana G
17 D. Blind M
31 N. Tagliafico D
2 P. Schuurs D
21 L. Martínez D
28 S. Dest D
22 H. Ziyech F
18 R. Marin M
6 D. van de Beek M
10 D. Tadić F
11 Q. Promes F
Bench (9)
7 David Neres
9 K. Huntelaar
4 E. Álvarez
33 D. Kotarski
26 J. Ekkelenkamp
16 L. Magallán
1 Bruno Varela
30 D. de Wit
3 J. Veltman

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
15,68
U
7,88
B ✓
1,15
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,29
U2,5
3,51
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Danny Desmond Makkelie · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.