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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Aves

T T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Sp Braga

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 23%

38%

Points per game

0,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

75%

38%

Both score Ø 57%

75%

38%

Average goals

3,6

2,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

28% Possession 72%

6 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 13

1 Offside 3

24 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 19. · Sp Braga 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	13	0	1	+29	39
2	Porto	13	11	1	1	+23	34
3	Famalicao	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Sp Lisbon	12	6	2	4	+4	20
5	Tondela	14	5	4	5	+0	19
6	Guimaraes	13	4	6	3	+5	18
7	Rio Ave	13	5	3	5	+1	18
8	Sp Braga	13	5	3	5	+0	18
9	Boavista	14	4	6	4	-1	18
10	Gil Vicente	13	4	5	4	-1	17
11	Moreirense	13	3	6	4	-1	15
12	Santa Clara	14	3	6	5	-4	15
13	Belenenses	12	4	2	6	-9	14
14	Setubal	12	2	7	3	-4	13
15	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	7	3	-4	13
16	Maritimo	14	2	7	5	-9	13
17	Portimonense	13	2	6	5	-7	12
18	Pacos Ferreira	12	2	2	8	-12	8
19	Aves	12	1	0	11	-15	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+17	21
3	Gil Vicente	8	3	5	0	+5	14
4	Famalicao	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+8	11
6	Moreirense	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+2	11
9	Setubal	7	2	5	0	+2	11
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	5	0	+2	11
11	Sp Lisbon	5	3	0	2	+3	9
12	Santa Clara	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Boavista	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Maritimo	7	1	4	2	-2	7
16	Belenenses	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Portimonense	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-4	4
19	Aves	5	1	0	4	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+12	18
2	Tondela	8	4	3	1	+4	15
3	Porto	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Famalicao	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Boavista	7	2	3	2	+0	9
7	Belenenses	7	2	2	3	-6	8
8	Sp Braga	7	2	1	4	-2	7
9	Rio Ave	6	2	1	3	-2	7
10	Guimaraes	7	1	4	2	-3	7
11	Portimonense	7	1	4	2	-4	7
12	Santa Clara	6	1	3	2	-3	6
13	Maritimo	7	1	3	3	-7	6
14	Moreirense	7	0	4	3	-5	4
15	Gil Vicente	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Vitoria Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	6	0	1	5	-11	1
19	Aves	7	0	0	7	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.