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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Tondela

T U U S T

1–3

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/28 matches

Win Ø 27%

24%

29%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

34%

46%

Both score Ø 39%

34%

43%

Average goals

2,0

2,4

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

64% Possession 36%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 22

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 14. · Pacos Ferreira 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	30	23	4	3	+46	73
2	Benfica	30	21	5	4	+39	68
3	Sp Lisbon	28	16	4	8	+16	52
4	Sp Braga	29	15	5	9	+14	50
5	Rio Ave	30	14	8	8	+11	50
6	Famalicao	28	13	8	7	+4	47
7	Guimaraes	28	10	11	7	+15	41
8	Santa Clara	30	10	10	10	-5	40
9	Boavista	30	10	8	12	-5	38
10	Gil Vicente	30	9	10	11	-4	37
11	Moreirense	29	8	12	9	+2	36
12	Maritimo	30	6	12	12	-11	30
13	Setubal	28	6	12	10	-13	30
14	Tondela	29	7	9	13	-13	30
15	Vitoria Setubal	28	6	12	10	-13	30
16	Belenenses	28	8	6	14	-19	30
17	Pacos Ferreira	28	8	4	16	-16	28
18	Portimonense	30	4	14	12	-16	26
19	Aves	29	4	2	23	-32	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+29	40
2	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+21	32
3	Sp Lisbon	14	10	0	4	+10	30
4	Famalicao	15	8	4	3	+6	28
5	Sp Braga	14	8	3	3	+8	27
6	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+10	22
7	Moreirense	14	6	4	4	+4	22
8	Gil Vicente	15	5	7	3	+3	22
9	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	+3	20
10	Maritimo	15	4	7	4	+1	19
11	Boavista	15	5	4	6	+1	19
12	Santa Clara	15	5	4	6	-5	19
13	Portimonense	15	3	8	4	-2	17
14	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	2	8	-4	17
15	Setubal	14	3	7	4	-5	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	7	4	-5	16
17	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-11	15
18	Tondela	14	2	5	7	-9	11
19	Aves	14	3	1	10	-10	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	11	3	1	+18	36
2	Porto	15	10	3	2	+17	33
3	Rio Ave	15	9	3	3	+8	30
4	Sp Braga	15	7	2	6	+6	23
5	Sp Lisbon	14	6	4	4	+6	22
6	Santa Clara	15	5	6	4	+0	21
7	Guimaraes	14	4	7	3	+5	19
8	Famalicao	13	5	4	4	-2	19
9	Tondela	15	5	4	6	-4	19
10	Boavista	15	5	4	6	-6	19
11	Gil Vicente	15	4	3	8	-7	15
12	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-8	15
13	Moreirense	15	2	8	5	-2	14
14	Setubal	14	3	5	6	-8	14
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	3	5	6	-8	14
16	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	2	8	-12	11
17	Maritimo	15	2	5	8	-12	11
18	Portimonense	15	1	6	8	-14	9
19	Aves	15	1	1	13	-22	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.