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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota

Sp Braga

T T U S T

4–0

Full-time

Aves

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,7

1,7

Scored

1,8

0,0

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 33%

52%

13%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

55%

50%

Both score Ø 49%

55%

43%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

69% Possession 31%

14 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 3

5 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Aves 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	31	24	4	3	+47	76
2	Benfica	32	22	5	5	+39	71
3	Sp Lisbon	30	18	4	8	+19	58
4	Sp Braga	31	16	5	10	+14	53
5	Rio Ave	31	15	8	8	+12	53
6	Guimaraes	32	13	11	8	+19	50
7	Famalicao	30	13	9	8	+3	48
8	Boavista	32	11	8	13	-6	41
9	Moreirense	31	9	13	9	+3	40
10	Santa Clara	32	10	10	12	-7	40
11	Gil Vicente	31	9	10	12	-5	37
12	Pacos Ferreira	32	11	4	17	-13	37
13	Maritimo	32	8	12	12	-8	36
14	Tondela	31	7	10	14	-15	31
15	Belenenses	30	8	7	15	-21	31
16	Setubal	30	6	12	12	-16	30
17	Vitoria Setubal	30	6	12	12	-16	30
18	Portimonense	32	5	14	13	-16	29
19	Aves	30	4	2	24	-33	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	1	1	+29	40
2	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+23	35
3	Sp Lisbon	15	11	0	4	+11	33
4	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+9	30
5	Guimaraes	16	8	4	4	+14	28
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+5	28
7	Rio Ave	16	6	5	5	+4	23
8	Moreirense	15	6	5	4	+4	23
9	Maritimo	16	5	7	4	+3	22
10	Gil Vicente	15	5	7	3	+3	22
11	Boavista	16	6	4	6	+2	22
12	Santa Clara	16	5	4	7	-6	19
13	Portimonense	16	3	8	5	-3	17
14	Pacos Ferreira	16	5	2	9	-5	17
15	Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	7	5	-6	16
17	Belenenses	16	4	4	8	-13	16
18	Tondela	15	2	5	8	-11	11
19	Aves	15	3	1	11	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	11	3	2	+18	36
2	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Rio Ave	15	9	3	3	+8	30
4	Sp Lisbon	15	7	4	4	+8	25
5	Sp Braga	16	7	2	7	+5	23
6	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+5	22
7	Santa Clara	16	5	6	5	-1	21
8	Famalicao	14	5	5	4	-2	20
9	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-4	20
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	2	8	-8	20
11	Boavista	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Moreirense	16	3	8	5	-1	17
13	Gil Vicente	16	4	3	9	-8	15
14	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-8	15
15	Setubal	15	3	5	7	-10	14
16	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	5	7	-10	14
17	Maritimo	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Portimonense	16	2	6	8	-13	12
19	Aves	15	1	1	13	-22	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.