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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Chelsea

U S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Watford

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 35%

50%

19%

Points per game

1,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

66%

47%

Both score Ø 52%

63%

41%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

70% Possession 30%

21 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Watford 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	32	28	2	2	+45	86
2	Man City	32	21	3	8	+48	66
3	Leicester	33	17	7	9	+32	58
4	Man United	33	15	10	8	+23	55
5	Chelsea	32	16	6	10	+13	54
6	Wolves	33	13	13	7	+9	52
7	Arsenal	33	12	13	8	+8	49
8	Sheffield United	32	12	11	9	+1	47
9	Tottenham	32	12	9	11	+7	45
10	Burnley	32	13	6	13	-9	45
11	Everton	32	12	8	12	-7	44
12	Newcastle	32	11	9	12	-10	42
13	Crystal Palace	33	11	9	13	-12	42
14	Southampton	32	12	4	16	-14	40
15	Brighton	33	8	12	13	-9	36
16	West Ham	32	8	6	18	-18	30
17	Watford	32	6	10	16	-20	28
18	Aston Villa	32	7	6	19	-24	27
19	Bournemouth	33	7	6	20	-27	27
20	Norwich	33	5	6	22	-36	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	16	0	0	+32	48
2	Man City	16	12	2	2	+33	38
3	Man United	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Leicester	17	10	4	3	+18	34
5	Tottenham	16	9	3	4	+14	30
6	Arsenal	16	8	5	3	+10	29
7	Everton	16	8	5	3	+5	29
8	Chelsea	16	8	3	5	+8	27
9	Sheffield United	16	8	3	5	+6	27
10	Burnley	16	8	2	6	+2	26
11	Wolves	17	6	7	4	+3	25
12	Newcastle	16	6	7	3	+3	25
13	Crystal Palace	16	6	4	6	-2	22
14	Brighton	16	5	6	5	+0	21
15	Watford	16	4	6	6	-3	18
16	West Ham	16	5	3	8	-4	18
17	Aston Villa	16	5	3	8	-8	18
18	Bournemouth	16	4	5	7	-9	17
19	Norwich	17	4	3	10	-12	15
20	Southampton	16	4	2	10	-17	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	12	2	2	+13	38
2	Man City	16	9	1	6	+15	28
3	Wolves	16	7	6	3	+6	27
4	Chelsea	16	8	3	5	+5	27
5	Southampton	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Leicester	16	7	3	6	+14	24
7	Man United	16	5	5	6	+0	20
8	Arsenal	17	4	8	5	-2	20
9	Sheffield United	16	4	8	4	-5	20
10	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-10	20
11	Burnley	16	5	4	7	-11	19
12	Newcastle	16	5	2	9	-13	17
13	Tottenham	16	3	6	7	-7	15
14	Brighton	17	3	6	8	-9	15
15	Everton	16	4	3	9	-12	15
16	West Ham	16	3	3	10	-14	12
17	Watford	16	2	4	10	-17	10
18	Bournemouth	17	3	1	13	-18	10
19	Aston Villa	16	2	3	11	-16	9
20	Norwich	16	1	3	12	-24	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.