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Championship

Referee: D England

Derby

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

This season — Championship · 40/40 matches

Win Ø 43%

40%

45%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

53%

43%

Both score Ø 56%

58%

53%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

68% Possession 32%

10 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Nott'm Forest 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	40	22	9	9	+27	75
2	West Brom	40	20	14	6	+29	74
3	Nott'm Forest	40	18	13	9	+13	67
4	Fulham	38	19	9	10	+11	66
5	Brentford	37	17	9	11	+31	60
6	Cardiff	39	15	15	9	+6	60
7	Derby	40	16	12	12	+3	60
8	Millwall	41	14	17	10	+4	59
9	Swansea	38	14	15	9	+8	57
10	Preston	40	16	9	15	+2	57
11	Blackburn	40	15	11	14	+5	56
12	Bristol City	40	15	10	15	-6	55
13	Sheffield Weds	40	14	10	16	-5	52
14	Wigan	40	13	11	16	-5	50
15	QPR	40	14	8	18	-7	50
16	Reading	40	13	10	17	+0	49
17	Birmingham	40	12	13	15	-12	49
18	Charlton	41	12	10	19	-9	46
19	Hull	40	12	9	19	-14	45
20	Huddersfield	40	12	9	19	-14	45
21	Middlesbrough	40	10	14	16	-12	44
22	Stoke	40	12	7	21	-11	43
23	Barnsley	40	10	11	19	-17	41
24	Luton	40	11	7	22	-27	40

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	20	12	5	3	+16	41
2	Derby	20	11	7	2	+16	40
3	Fulham	20	12	2	6	+9	38
4	Preston	21	11	3	7	+8	36
5	Cardiff	19	9	8	2	+11	35
6	Blackburn	20	9	8	3	+10	35
7	Nott'm Forest	20	10	4	6	+4	34
8	Brentford	17	9	5	3	+19	32
9	West Brom	19	8	8	3	+13	32
10	Millwall	20	8	8	4	+6	32
11	Wigan	20	8	6	6	+1	30
12	Swansea	19	8	5	6	+6	29
13	QPR	21	8	5	8	+2	29
14	Charlton	21	8	5	8	+2	29
15	Stoke	20	8	3	9	+3	27
16	Sheffield Weds	20	7	6	7	-8	27
17	Luton	19	7	5	7	+0	26
18	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-3	26
19	Huddersfield	20	7	5	8	-3	26
20	Middlesbrough	20	6	8	6	-4	26
21	Barnsley	21	6	8	7	-5	26
22	Reading	20	7	3	10	-4	24
23	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-5	24
24	Hull	21	7	3	11	-6	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	21	12	6	3	+16	42
2	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+11	34
3	Nott'm Forest	20	8	9	3	+9	33
4	Bristol City	21	8	5	8	-3	29
5	Brentford	20	8	4	8	+12	28
6	Swansea	19	6	10	3	+2	28
7	Fulham	18	7	7	4	+2	28
8	Millwall	21	6	9	6	-2	27
9	Reading	20	6	7	7	+4	25
10	Sheffield Weds	20	7	4	9	+3	25
11	Cardiff	20	6	7	7	-5	25
12	Birmingham	20	6	7	7	-7	25
13	Blackburn	20	6	3	11	-5	21
14	Preston	19	5	6	8	-6	21
15	Hull	19	5	6	8	-8	21
16	QPR	19	6	3	10	-9	21
17	Wigan	20	5	5	10	-6	20
18	Derby	20	5	5	10	-13	20
19	Huddersfield	20	5	4	11	-11	19
20	Middlesbrough	20	4	6	10	-8	18
21	Charlton	20	4	5	11	-11	17
22	Stoke	20	4	4	12	-14	16
23	Barnsley	19	4	3	12	-12	15
24	Luton	21	4	2	15	-27	14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.