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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Benfica

S S U S U

1–1

Full-time

Nacional

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 46%

71%

21%

Points per game

2,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

57%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

3,1

2,2

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

11 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 3. · Nacional 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+22	36
2	Porto	14	10	2	2	+19	32
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+15	32
4	Pacos Ferreira	15	8	4	3	+10	28
5	Sp Braga	14	9	0	5	+8	27
6	Guimaraes	14	8	2	4	+6	26
7	Santa Clara	15	5	3	7	-4	18
8	Moreirense	15	4	6	5	-4	18
9	Maritimo	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Belenenses	15	3	6	6	-4	15
11	Portimonense	15	4	3	8	-7	15
12	Rio Ave	15	3	6	6	-7	15
13	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-12	15
14	Famalicao	15	3	5	7	-10	14
15	Gil Vicente	14	3	4	7	-6	13
16	Nacional	14	3	4	7	-7	13
17	Farense	13	3	3	7	-4	12
18	Boavista	14	1	8	5	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+8	18
3	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Pacos Ferreira	7	5	1	1	+6	16
5	Sp Braga	6	5	0	1	+6	15
6	Tondela	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Moreirense	8	3	4	1	+3	13
8	Farense	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Portimonense	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Belenenses	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Nacional	8	2	3	3	-2	9
12	Guimaraes	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Rio Ave	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Famalicao	8	1	3	4	-8	6
17	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Guimaraes	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+7	14
4	Porto	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Santa Clara	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	3	2	+4	12
7	Sp Braga	8	4	0	4	+2	12
8	Maritimo	8	3	0	5	-2	9
9	Famalicao	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-6	7
11	Belenenses	7	1	3	3	-3	6
12	Boavista	8	0	6	2	-4	6
13	Gil Vicente	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Portimonense	8	1	1	6	-8	4
17	Farense	6	0	1	5	-7	1
18	Tondela	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.