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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota

Nacional

S T T T S

0–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/12 matches

Win Ø 55%

27%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

36%

67%

Both score Ø 48%

45%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

44% Possession 56%

6 Shots 24

1 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 10

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 9. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+20	32
2	Porto	12	9	1	2	+16	28
3	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+13	28
4	Sp Braga	13	9	0	4	+10	27
5	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	4	3	+3	19
6	Guimaraes	11	6	1	4	+3	19
7	Maritimo	13	4	2	7	-3	14
8	Santa Clara	12	4	2	6	-4	14
9	Nacional	11	3	4	4	-2	13
10	Gil Vicente	12	3	4	5	-3	13
11	Moreirense	12	3	4	5	-5	13
12	Belenenses	12	2	6	4	-3	12
13	Tondela	12	3	3	6	-10	12
14	Portimonense	12	3	2	7	-5	11
15	Famalicao	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Rio Ave	12	2	5	5	-9	11
17	Boavista	12	1	7	4	-8	10
18	Farense	12	2	3	7	-6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+10	18
2	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
3	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+6	15
4	Sp Braga	6	5	0	1	+6	15
5	Pacos Ferreira	6	4	1	1	+4	13
6	Moreirense	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Tondela	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Farense	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Portimonense	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Maritimo	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Belenenses	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Famalicao	6	1	3	2	-4	6
15	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Santa Clara	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Guimaraes	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+7	13
4	Sp Braga	7	4	0	3	+4	12
5	Porto	5	3	1	1	+6	10
6	Santa Clara	6	3	0	3	+0	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
8	Boavista	7	0	6	1	-2	6
9	Belenenses	6	1	3	2	-2	6
10	Maritimo	7	2	0	5	-3	6
11	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-6	6
12	Famalicao	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Gil Vicente	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Portimonense	6	1	0	5	-5	3
16	Moreirense	6	0	2	4	-8	2
17	Farense	6	0	1	5	-7	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.