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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Pacos Ferreira

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Tondela

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 44%

56%

31%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 31%

31%

Both score Ø 41%

50%

31%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

23 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pacos Ferreira 5. · Tondela 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	14	3	0	+27	45
2	Porto	17	12	3	2	+22	39
3	Sp Braga	17	12	0	5	+14	36
4	Benfica	17	10	4	3	+14	34
5	Pacos Ferreira	16	9	4	3	+11	31
6	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+7	30
7	Santa Clara	17	6	4	7	-2	22
8	Moreirense	17	5	6	6	-6	21
9	Nacional	17	4	6	7	-6	18
10	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-10	18
11	Maritimo	17	5	2	10	-8	17
12	Belenenses	17	3	7	7	-6	16
13	Rio Ave	17	3	7	7	-9	16
14	Portimonense	17	4	3	10	-9	15
15	Boavista	16	2	8	6	-11	14
16	Famalicao	17	3	5	9	-13	14
17	Farense	16	3	4	9	-7	13
18	Gil Vicente	16	3	4	9	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Sp Braga	8	7	0	1	+8	21
3	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+11	20
4	Benfica	9	6	2	1	+8	20
5	Tondela	9	5	2	2	+2	17
6	Pacos Ferreira	7	5	1	1	+6	16
7	Moreirense	9	3	4	2	-1	13
8	Farense	9	3	3	3	+2	12
9	Nacional	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	Guimaraes	8	4	0	4	-2	12
11	Portimonense	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	Belenenses	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	-2	8
15	Santa Clara	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
17	Famalicao	9	1	3	5	-10	6
18	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+16	25
2	Guimaraes	8	5	3	0	+9	18
3	Porto	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Sp Braga	9	5	0	4	+6	15
5	Pacos Ferreira	9	4	3	2	+5	15
6	Benfica	8	4	2	2	+6	14
7	Santa Clara	9	4	2	3	+1	14
8	Boavista	9	1	6	2	-3	9
9	Maritimo	9	3	0	6	-3	9
10	Famalicao	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-5	8
12	Rio Ave	9	1	4	4	-8	7
13	Nacional	8	1	3	4	-5	6
14	Belenenses	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	Gil Vicente	8	1	2	5	-6	5
16	Portimonense	9	1	1	7	-9	4
17	Farense	7	0	1	6	-9	1
18	Tondela	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.