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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Estoril

S U S U S

2–1

Full-time

Maritimo

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

41% Possession 59%

9 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 4

0 Offside 4

21 Free kicks against 24

7 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 3. · Maritimo 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Estoril	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Porto	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Portimonense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+3	4
10	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Vizela	3	1	0	2	-6	3
15	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Belenenses	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Santa Clara	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Famalicao	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+3	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Portimonense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Moreirense	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Guimaraes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Famalicao	2	0	0	2	-3	0
14	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-3	0
15	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
16	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-4	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-5	0
18	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.