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Primeira Liga
Referee: Hugo Silva
Arouca
T T T S S
0–2
Full-time
Estoril
S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Estoril
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
1,7
Scored
1,7
0,8
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%
11 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 2
4 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. May -17 Estoril – Arouca 4–2 13. Jan -17 Arouca – Estoril 2–1 9. May -16 Estoril – Arouca 1–1 6. Jan -16 Arouca – Estoril 1–0

Match report

Arouca Estoril
4′
⚽ André Franco 0–1
Joãozinho
38′
🟨 João Gamboa
Half-time 0–1
Quaresma 🔁
↦ Eugeni Valderrama
46′
Pité 🔁
↦ Joel
46′
57′
🟨 Daniel Figueira
61′
🔁 Francisco Geraldes
↦ Chiquinho
O. Dasa 🔁
↦ B. Aloé
68′
73′
🔁 R. Meshino
↦ André Franco
Adílio Santos 🔁
↦ Arsénio
79′
83′
🔁 L. Acevedo
↦ André
83′
🔁 L. Albornoz
↦ L. Rosier
M. Caballero 🔁
↦ A. Bukia
87′
Mauro Caballero 🟨
88′
89′
🟨 Francisco Geraldes
96′
⚽ R. Meshino 0–2
Joãozinho
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Arouca

4-2-3-1
1 Victor Braga G
4 J. Velázquez D
29 Joel D
32 B. Aloé D
72 Thales D
20 Pedro Moreira M
21 Leandro Silva M
23 Eugeni Valderrama M
8 Arsénio M
10 A. Bukia M
7 André Silva F
Bench (9)
6 Quaresma
14 Pité
19 O. Dasa
11 Adílio Santos
9 M. Caballero
2 Luiz Gustavo
3 Brunão
60 Marco Soares
97 Fernando Castro

Coach: Armando Evangelista

Estoril

4-3-3
99 Daniel Leite G
31 Joãozinho D
4 Lucas Áfrico D
2 Carles Soria D
3 Bernardo Vital D
21 Gamboa M
20 Bruno Lourenço M
32 L. Rosier M
9 André F
10 André Franco F
7 Chiquinho F
Bench (9)
6 Francisco Geraldes
26 R. Meshino
18 L. Acevedo
8 L. Albornoz
22 David Bruno
12 Thiago
90 Gilson Tavares
37 M. Achouri
14 R. Coly

Coach: Bruno Pinheiro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,25
🔒
U
3,20
🔒
B ✓
3,28
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
2,30
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,61
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Hugo Silva · 16 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
32,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,56 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.