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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Estoril

T U S T T

2–1

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 21%

22%

19%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 51%

38%

63%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,9

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 10

2 Offside 9

17 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 18. · Vitoria Setubal 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	32	26	4	2	+62	82
2	Benfica	33	24	6	3	+57	78
3	Sp Lisbon	33	24	6	3	+40	78
4	Sp Braga	33	24	3	6	+46	75
5	Rio Ave	32	14	5	13	-3	47
6	Maritimo	32	12	8	12	-11	44
7	Guimaraes	33	13	4	16	-10	43
8	Boavista	33	12	6	15	-10	42
9	Chaves	32	11	8	13	-12	41
10	Tondela	33	10	8	15	-8	38
11	Belenenses	33	9	10	14	-12	37
12	Portimonense	33	9	8	16	-10	35
13	Moreirense	32	8	8	16	-17	32
14	Aves	32	8	7	17	-17	31
15	Feirense	32	9	3	20	-15	30
16	Vitoria Setubal	32	6	11	15	-23	29
17	Pacos Ferreira	32	7	8	17	-24	29
18	Estoril	32	7	5	20	-33	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	15	1	0	+41	46
2	Sp Lisbon	17	14	3	0	+28	45
3	Sp Braga	17	14	1	2	+27	43
4	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+37	40
5	Rio Ave	16	10	3	3	+13	33
6	Boavista	16	10	2	4	+6	32
7	Maritimo	16	9	4	3	+8	31
8	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	-1	30
9	Belenenses	17	7	5	5	+3	26
10	Portimonense	16	7	2	7	+1	23
11	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	5	5	-3	23
12	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	6	5	-1	21
13	Chaves	16	5	6	5	-2	21
14	Moreirense	16	5	6	5	-2	21
15	Feirense	16	6	2	8	-4	20
16	Tondela	17	5	3	9	-5	18
17	Aves	16	5	3	8	-6	18
18	Estoril	16	4	3	9	-13	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	11	5	1	+20	38
2	Porto	16	11	3	2	+21	36
3	Sp Lisbon	16	10	3	3	+12	33
4	Sp Braga	16	10	2	4	+19	32
5	Tondela	16	5	5	6	-3	20
6	Chaves	16	6	2	8	-10	20
7	Rio Ave	16	4	2	10	-16	14
8	Guimaraes	17	4	1	12	-9	13
9	Aves	16	3	4	9	-11	13
10	Maritimo	16	3	4	9	-19	13
11	Portimonense	17	2	6	9	-11	12
12	Moreirense	16	3	2	11	-15	11
13	Belenenses	16	2	5	9	-15	11
14	Estoril	16	3	2	11	-20	11
15	Feirense	16	3	1	12	-11	10
16	Boavista	17	2	4	11	-16	10
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	1	5	10	-22	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	16	1	3	12	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.