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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Maritimo

T T S U T

2–2

Full-time

Arouca

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

48% Possession 52%

14 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 19

5 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Maritimo 12. · Arouca 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Porto	5	3	2	0	+6	11
3	Sp Lisbon	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Portimonense	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	+3	6
11	Vizela	5	1	2	2	-6	5
12	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-9	4
14	Moreirense	5	0	3	2	-2	3
15	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-6	3
17	Famalicao	5	0	2	3	-4	2
18	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+3	4
6	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-4	4
11	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Portimonense	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Porto	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Moreirense	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-3	1
13	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Belenenses	3	0	1	2	-4	1
15	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-7	1
16	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-5	0
18	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.