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Primeira Liga

Referee: Cláudio Pereira

Tondela

T S T T T

1–2

Full-time

Estoril

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

0,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 24

2 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Estoril 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Porto	5	3	2	0	+6	11
3	Sp Lisbon	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Portimonense	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Guimaraes	5	1	3	1	+3	6
11	Maritimo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Vizela	5	1	2	2	-6	5
13	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-6	4
14	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-9	4
15	Moreirense	5	0	3	2	-2	3
16	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-2	3
17	Famalicao	5	0	2	3	-4	2
18	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+3	4
6	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-4	4
11	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Maritimo	3	0	2	1	-2	2
14	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Portimonense	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Porto	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Moreirense	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Guimaraes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-3	1
13	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Belenenses	3	0	1	2	-4	1
15	Arouca	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-7	1
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.