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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Arouca

U U T T U

2–0

Full-time

Tondela

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

11%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

67%

89%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

4 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 13

5 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 16. · Tondela 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+15	24
2	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+10	23
4	Estoril	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Sp Braga	9	4	4	1	+5	16
6	Portimonense	9	4	2	3	+2	14
7	Guimaraes	9	3	4	2	+3	13
8	Boavista	9	2	5	2	+0	11
9	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	4	3	-3	10
10	Gil Vicente	9	2	3	4	-1	9
11	Tondela	9	3	0	6	-4	9
12	Vizela	9	1	5	3	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	1	4	4	-4	7
14	Moreirense	9	1	4	4	-7	7
15	Famalicao	9	1	3	5	-4	6
16	Arouca	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	Santa Clara	9	1	3	5	-12	6
18	Belenenses	9	0	5	4	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+11	12
3	Boavista	5	2	3	0	+5	9
4	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+2	7
6	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
7	Vizela	5	1	3	1	+0	6
8	Tondela	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Sp Braga	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Estoril	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-6	5
12	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Gil Vicente	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Portimonense	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Maritimo	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Belenenses	4	0	2	2	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Estoril	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Porto	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Sp Braga	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	Portimonense	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Guimaraes	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Gil Vicente	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Famalicao	5	1	1	3	-2	4
10	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-2	4
11	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Belenenses	5	0	3	2	-4	3
14	Moreirense	5	0	3	2	-6	3
15	Boavista	4	0	2	2	-5	2
16	Arouca	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-7	2
18	Santa Clara	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.