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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Melo

Moreirense

U T U U T

2–1

Full-time

Arouca

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

33% Possession 67%

8 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 8

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 18. · Arouca 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Porto	7	5	2	0	+12	17
3	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+8	17
4	Estoril	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Portimonense	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	+0	8
8	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Guimaraes	6	1	4	1	+3	7
11	Maritimo	7	1	3	3	-3	6
12	Vizela	6	1	3	2	-6	6
13	Arouca	6	1	2	3	-6	5
14	Santa Clara	6	1	1	4	-10	4
15	Famalicao	6	0	3	3	-4	3
16	Tondela	6	1	0	5	-5	3
17	Belenenses	6	0	3	3	-5	3
18	Moreirense	6	0	3	3	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Vizela	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+3	4
7	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Gil Vicente	4	1	1	2	+0	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-4	4
13	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Portimonense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Belenenses	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Maritimo	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Estoril	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Porto	4	2	2	0	+2	8
4	Portimonense	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	-2	4
10	Guimaraes	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-5	2
12	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-3	1
13	Belenenses	3	0	1	2	-4	1
14	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-5	1
15	Arouca	3	0	1	2	-5	1
16	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-7	1
17	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Santa Clara	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.