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Primeira Liga
Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro
Sp Braga
S T S U U
3–1
Full-time
Tondela
S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Tondela
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
33%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,7
3,3
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
40%
20%
Points per game
1,6
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
40%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
40%
60%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
0,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%
20 Shots 3
7 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 0
2 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 6
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Braga 6. · Tondela 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 6 6 0 0 +13 18
2 Porto 6 4 2 0 +11 14
3 Sp Lisbon 6 4 2 0 +7 14
4 Estoril 6 4 1 1 +5 13
5 Portimonense 6 3 1 2 +3 10
6 Sp Braga 5 2 2 1 +2 8
7 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 +1 8
8 Boavista 6 2 2 2 +0 8
9 Pacos Ferreira 6 2 2 2 -2 8
10 Guimaraes 6 1 4 1 +3 7
11 Maritimo 6 1 3 2 -2 6
12 Vizela 6 1 3 2 -6 6
13 Arouca 6 1 2 3 -6 5
14 Santa Clara 6 1 1 4 -10 4
15 Tondela 5 1 0 4 -3 3
16 Famalicao 6 0 3 3 -4 3
17 Belenenses 6 0 3 3 -5 3
18 Moreirense 6 0 3 3 -7 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Braga Tondela
12′
🟨 Salvador Agra
39′
🟨 João Pedro
44′
🟨 Neto Borges
Half-time 0–0
André Horta 🔁
↦ Lucas Mineiro
46′
Galeno 🔁
↦ Chiquinho
46′
Mario González 🔁
↦ Abel Ruiz
52′
Yan Couto 🟨
56′
Iuri Medeiros 🔁
↦ Fábio Martins
63′
Wenderson Galeno 🟨
69′
69′
🔁 Tiago Dantas
↦ Salvador Agra
Francisco Moura 🔁
↦ Nuno Sequeira
72′
73′
🔁 Ricardo Alves
↦ M. Sagnan
79′
🔁 R. Dadaşov
↦ Daniel dos Anjos
79′
🔁 S. Muratore
↦ Iker Undabarrena
1–0 Iuri Medeiros
81′
2–0 Ricardo Horta
Yan Couto
84′
86′
R. Dadaşov 2–1
J. Murillo
3–1 Iuri Medeiros
André Horta
90′
93′
🟨 Manu
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Sp Braga

4-2-3-1
1 Matheus G
15 Paulo Oliveira D
5 Nuno Sequeira D
4 Diogo Leite D
2 Yan Couto D
26 Fábio Martins M
8 Ali Musrati M
22 Chiquinho M
25 Lucas Mineiro M
21 Ricardo Horta M
9 Abel Ruiz F
Bench (9)
10 André Horta
90 Galeno
19 Mario González
45 Iuri Medeiros
74 Francisco Moura
70 Fabiano
11 Lucas Piazón
3 Vítor Tormena
12 Tiago Sá

Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Tondela

4-2-3-1
99 B. Niasse G
15 Manu Hernando D
3 Neto Borges D
5 M. Sagnan D
19 Tiago Almeida D
21 Iker Undabarrena M
8 João Pedro M
6 Pedro Augusto M
7 Salvador Agra M
10 J. Murillo M
29 Daniel dos Anjos F
Bench (9)
28 Tiago Dantas
34 Ricardo Alves
17 R. Dadaşov
38 S. Muratore
23 Bebeto
70 Rafael Barbosa
72 Eduardo Quaresma
88 Pedro Trigueira
11 J. Boselli

Coach: Pako Ayestarán

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,33
U
5,15
B
8,94
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,65
U2,5
2,23
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro · 221 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.