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Primeira Liga
Referee: Hélder Carvalho
Arouca
T T S S S
4–3
Full-time
Estoril
S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Estoril
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
1,7
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,55 xG 0,61
38% Possession 62%
11 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 8
1 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
2 Offside 4
11 Free kicks against 17
4 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

15. May -23 Estoril – Arouca 2–0 7. Jan -23 Arouca – Estoril 2–0 27. Jan -22 Estoril – Arouca 1–2 7. Aug -21 Arouca – Estoril 0–2 21. May -17 Estoril – Arouca 4–2

Match report

Arouca Estoril
Tiago Esgaio 🟨
4′
Morlaye Sylla 🟨
10′
10′
⚽ J. Holsgrove 0–1
1–1 Rafa Mújica ⚽
David Simão
20′
Kouassi Eboue 🟨
21′
Kouassi Eboue 🟥
37′
41′
🟨 Jordan Holsgrove
Half-time 1–2
49′
⚽ João Marques 1–2
Volnei Feltes
55′
ℹ️ Cassiano
VAR: Goal cancelled
2–2 Cristo González ⚽
David Simão
57′
Miguel Puche 🔁
↦ Jason
60′
Oriol Busquets 🔁
↦ M. Sylla
61′
Rafael Fernandes 🔁
↦ Rafa Mújica
61′
66′
🔁 Rodrigo Gomes
↦ Heriberto Tavares
66′
🔁 A. Marqués
↦ Cassiano
70′
⚽ A. Marqués 2–3
Volnei Feltes
2–4 Volnei Feltes ⚽
own goal
73′
Weverson 🔁
↦ Quaresma
77′
79′
🔁 Alex Soares
↦ I. Pavlić
Pedro Santos 🔁
↦ Cristo González
82′
84′
🔁 E. Cabaco
↦ E. Mangala
3–4 Pedro Santos ⚽
Weverson
96′
Pedro Santos 🟨
97′
100′
🟨 Rodrigo Gomes
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Arouca

4-4-2
12 I. de Arruabarrena G
28 Tiago Esgaio D
44 N. Galović D
3 J. Opoku D
6 Quaresma D
10 Jason M
8 E. Kouassi M
5 David Simão M
2 M. Sylla M
23 Cristo González F
19 Rafa Mújica F
Bench (9)
11 Miguel Puche
14 Oriol Busquets
64 Rafael Fernandes
26 Weverson
89 Pedro Santos
7 Y. Lawal
22 B. Milovanov
16 Thiago
30 A. Bukia

Coach: Daniel Ramos

Estoril

4-3-3
99 Daniel Figueira G
5 Volnei Feltes D
3 Bernardo Vital D
22 E. Mangala D
78 Tiago Araújo D
33 João Marques M
8 J. Holsgrove M
28 I. Pavlić M
10 R. Guitane F
11 Cassiano F
91 Heriberto Tavares F
Bench (9)
21 Rodrigo Gomes
9 A. Marqués
6 Alex Soares
18 E. Cabaco
83 K. Koindredi
20 João Carlos
2 Raúl Parra
7 Rodrigo Martins
31 Marcelo Carné

Coach: Álvaro Pacheco

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,13
🔒
U
3,19
🔒
B
3,64
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,33
🔒
U2,5
1,59
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Hélder Carvalho · 34 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
29,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.