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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Benfica

S S U S T

2–0

Full-time

Estrela

U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

25%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

5,0

1,0

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,95 xG 0,40

68% Possession 32%

27 Shots 6

10 Shots on target 1

10 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 12. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	+2	+1.3	6
2	Guimaraes	2	2	0	+2	+0.1	6
3	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	+4	+0.8	3
4	Casa Pia	2	1	1	+2	+1.4	3
5	Rio Ave	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	3
6	Sp Braga	2	1	1	+1	-0.1	3
7	Arouca	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	3
8	Boavista	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	3
9	Famalicao	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	3
10	Porto	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	3
11	Estoril	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
12	Benfica	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
13	Vizela	1	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
14	Moreirense	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
15	Estrela	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
16	Farense	1	0	1	-3	-1.5	0
17	Chaves	2	0	2	-4	-2.6	0
18	Portimonense	1	0	1	-5	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	+5	+0.6	3
2	Rio Ave	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	3
3	Arouca	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	3
4	Boavista	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	3
6	Guimaraes	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	3
7	Sp Braga	1	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
8	Moreirense	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
9	Casa Pia	1	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
10	Estrela	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
11	Chaves	1	0	1	-2	+0.5	0
12	Farense	1	0	1	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Casa Pia	1	1	0	+3	+1.5	3
2	Sp Braga	1	1	0	+2	-0.5	3
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	3
6	Guimaraes	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	3
7	Estoril	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
8	Benfica	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
9	Vizela	1	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
10	Gil Vicente	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
11	Chaves	1	0	1	-2	-3.0	0
12	Portimonense	1	0	1	-5	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.