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Primeira Liga
Referee: Iancu Vasilica
Estoril
T S U S T
2–0
Full-time
Rio Ave
U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Rio Ave
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,7
Scored
2,2
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
7,0
2,0
Scored
3,0
2,0
Conceded
4,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+2,0
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,01 xG 0,80
39% Possession 61%
5 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Estoril 12. · Rio Ave 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Boavista 2 2 0 0 +4 +0.8 6
2 Sp Lisbon 2 2 0 0 +2 +1.3 6
3 Guimaraes 2 2 0 0 +2 +0.1 6
4 Gil Vicente 2 1 0 1 +4 +0.8 3
5 Casa Pia 2 1 0 1 +2 +1.4 3
6 Rio Ave 1 1 0 0 +2 +3.0 3
7 Sp Braga 2 1 0 1 +1 -0.1 3
8 Benfica 2 1 0 1 +1 +2.6 3
9 Arouca 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.1 3
10 Famalicao 1 1 0 0 +1 -0.4 3
11 Porto 1 1 0 0 +1 +0.3 3
12 Estoril 1 0 0 1 -1 +0.1 0
13 Vizela 1 0 0 1 -1 -1.2 0
14 Moreirense 1 0 0 1 -1 -0.3 0
15 Estrela 2 0 0 2 -3 -2.9 0
16 Farense 1 0 0 1 -3 -1.5 0
17 Chaves 2 0 0 2 -4 -2.6 0
18 Portimonense 2 0 0 2 -8 -1.5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Estoril Rio Ave
Bernardo Vital 🟨
5′
21′
🟨 Renato Pantalon
Rodrigo Gomes 🔁
↦ Heriberto Tavares
39′
Alex Soares 🔁
↦ I. Pavlić
39′
Half-time 0–0
E. Cabaco 🔁
↦ Bernardo Vital
46′
1–0 E. Mangala
55′
59′
🔁 André Pereira
↦ L. Ruiz
59′
🔁 Zé Manuel
↦ Joca
59′
🔁 E. Boateng
↦ Hernâni
A. Marqués 🔁
↦ Cassiano
65′
73′
🔁 Sávio
↦ R. Pantalon
Tiago Araújo 🟨
75′
Jordan Holsgrove 🟨
77′
77′
🔁 João Graça
↦ A. Oudrhiri
M. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ R. Guitane
82′
Alejandro Marqués 🟨
86′
95′
🟨 Emmanuel Boateng
2–0 A. Marqués
João Marques
98′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Estoril

4-2-3-1
99 Daniel Figueira G
5 Volnei Feltes D
3 Bernardo Vital D
22 E. Mangala D
78 Tiago Araújo D
28 I. Pavlić M
8 J. Holsgrove M
10 R. Guitane M
33 João Marques M
91 Heriberto Tavares M
11 Cassiano F
Bench (9)
21 Rodrigo Gomes
6 Alex Soares
18 E. Cabaco
9 A. Marqués
64 M. Ndiaye
31 Marcelo Carné
2 Raúl Parra
83 K. Koindredi
20 João Carlos

Coach: Álvaro Pacheco

Rio Ave

3-4-3
82 Magrão G
42 R. Pantalon D
33 Aderllan Santos D
23 Josué Sá D
20 Costinha M
10 A. Oudrhiri M
6 Guga M
77 Fábio Ronaldo M
14 Joca F
9 L. Ruiz F
7 Hernâni F
Bench (9)
95 André Pereira
70 Zé Manuel
22 E. Boateng
16 Sávio
21 João Graça
13 J. Lomboto
1 Lucas Flores
4 Patrick William
17 Ukra

Coach: Luís Freire

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,43
U
3,19
B
3,01
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,24
U2,5 ✓
1,64
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Iancu Vasilica · 52 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
29,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.