Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Estoril
Rio Ave
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Boavista
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | +0.8 | 6 |
| 2 |
Sp Lisbon
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +1.3 | 6 |
| 3 |
Guimaraes
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +0.1 | 6 |
| 4 |
Gil Vicente
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | +0.8 | 3 |
| 5 |
Casa Pia
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 6 |
Rio Ave
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | +3.0 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sp Braga
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Benfica
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | +2.6 | 3 |
| 9 |
Arouca
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Famalicao
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | -0.4 | 3 |
| 11 |
Porto
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | +0.3 | 3 |
| 12 |
Estoril
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | +0.1 | 0 |
| 13 |
Vizela
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -1.2 | 0 |
| 14 |
Moreirense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| 15 |
Estrela
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | -2.9 | 0 |
| 16 |
Farense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
| 17 |
Chaves
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | -2.6 | 0 |
| 18 |
Portimonense
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | -1.5 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Bernardo Vital
D
Tiago Araújo
D
I. Pavlić
M
J. Holsgrove
M
R. Guitane
M
Cassiano
F
Coach: Álvaro Pacheco
Costinha
M
Fábio Ronaldo
M
Joca
F
Coach: Luís Freire
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Arouca
Estoril
Estoril
Maritimo
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estoril
Arouca
Boavista
Estoril
Iancu Vasilica · 52 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.