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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Estrela

T S U T U

2–4

Full-time

Sp Braga

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,2

4,2

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,48 xG 2,71

48% Possession 52%

17 Shots 17

9 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 14. · Sp Braga 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	+5.5	16
2	Porto	6	5	1	0	+5	+5.6	16
3	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+9	+6.4	15
4	Boavista	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.8	13
5	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+2	-3.6	11
6	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.9	10
7	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.8	10
8	Casa Pia	6	2	3	1	+3	+0.8	9
9	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.0	7
10	Gil Vicente	6	2	0	4	+3	-3.2	6
11	Farense	6	2	0	4	+1	-1.0	6
12	Arouca	6	1	3	2	-1	+0.2	6
13	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.8	5
14	Estrela	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.3	5
15	Rio Ave	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.8	5
16	Portimonense	6	1	2	3	-9	-3.6	5
17	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-3	+1.6	4
18	Chaves	6	0	1	5	-13	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.7	7
3	Porto	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.7	7
4	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+6	-1.6	6
6	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
7	Farense	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.0	6
9	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+4.2	4
10	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
11	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
12	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.2	4
13	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.5	4
14	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
15	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.7	3
16	Casa Pia	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
17	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.3	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.8	9
3	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
5	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.5	6
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
7	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.6	4
8	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
9	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.8	4
10	Portimonense	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.8	4
11	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
12	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.1	2
13	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.3	1
14	Rio Ave	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.9	1
15	Gil Vicente	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.6	0
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.3	0
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.