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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

AZ Alkmaar

U S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Heracles

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,5

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 70%

100%

40%

Points per game

3,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

60%

100%

Both score Ø 70%

40%

100%

Average goals

3,4

4,0

Scored

3,0

1,8

Conceded

0,4

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,6

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,66 xG 0,76

61% Possession 39%

21 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

16 Corners 0

3 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 2. · Heracles 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+19	+12.9	18
2	AZ Alkmaar	5	5	0	0	+13	+4.5	15
3	Twente	6	5	0	1	+9	+4.6	15
4	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	+18	+13.1	14
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.4	11
6	Go Ahead Eagles	6	3	1	2	+0	-4.8	10
7	Excelsior	6	2	3	1	+2	-2.6	9
8	For Sittard	6	2	3	1	+0	+2.2	9
9	Nijmegen	6	2	1	3	+0	-6.0	7
10	Heracles	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.9	7
11	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-4	+2.5	7
12	Heerenveen	6	2	0	4	-7	-5.9	6
13	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-8	+1.0	6
14	Ajax	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.1	5
15	Vitesse	6	1	0	5	-7	-4.0	3
16	Utrecht	6	1	0	5	-10	-4.8	3
17	Volendam	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.5	1
18	Almere City	6	0	1	5	-14	-6.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+9	+8.8	9
2	Go Ahead Eagles	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.2	9
3	Twente	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.3	9
4	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+10	+5.9	7
5	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
6	AZ Alkmaar	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.4	6
7	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+5	+0.8	6
8	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
9	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.4	5
10	Zwolle	4	1	1	2	-3	+2.4	4
11	Excelsior	3	0	3	0	+0	-2.3	3
12	Ajax	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
13	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.8	3
14	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-5	-0.5	3
15	Volendam	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.0	1
16	Vitesse	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.9	0
17	Utrecht	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.2	0
18	Almere City	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+10	+4.2	9
2	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.1	9
3	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+8	+7.2	7
4	Twente	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.3	6
5	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.3	6
6	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.9	6
7	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
8	Vitesse	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.0	3
9	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.4	3
10	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-4	-5.1	3
11	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.6	3
12	Ajax	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.4	2
13	For Sittard	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.7	2
14	Heracles	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.3	1
15	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.8	1
16	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.5	1
17	Go Ahead Eagles	3	0	1	2	-7	-7.1	1
18	Volendam	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.