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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Chaves

T T T T T

2–2

Full-time

Estrela

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,3

2,0

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

3,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

0,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

80%

20%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

4,2

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,6

Conceded

3,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-2,6

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,68 xG 1,61

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chaves 18. · Estrela 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+5	+5.6	16
2	Boavista	5	4	1	0	+8	+2.0	13
3	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.8	13
4	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	+6.1	12
5	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+2	-3.6	11
6	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.8	10
7	Casa Pia	6	2	3	1	+3	+0.8	9
8	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.9	7
9	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.0	7
10	Gil Vicente	6	2	0	4	+3	-3.2	6
11	Farense	6	2	0	4	+1	-1.0	6
12	Arouca	6	1	3	2	-1	+0.2	6
13	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.0	5
14	Vizela	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.8	5
15	Portimonense	5	1	2	2	-7	-3.3	5
16	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-3	+1.6	4
17	Estrela	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.3	4
18	Chaves	5	0	0	5	-13	-4.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+4.8	9
2	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.7	7
3	Porto	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.7	7
4	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+6	-1.6	6
6	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
7	Farense	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.9	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.0	6
9	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
10	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
11	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.2	4
12	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.5	4
13	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
14	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.7	3
15	Casa Pia	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
16	Sp Braga	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
17	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.5	1
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.8	9
2	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
3	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.3	6
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
5	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+1	+2.0	6
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
7	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.6	4
8	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
9	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.8	4
10	Portimonense	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.8	4
11	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
12	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
13	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
14	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.3	1
15	Gil Vicente	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.6	0
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.3	0
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.