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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Melo

Estoril

T T S T S

4–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,3

Scored

1,7

0,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

60%

20%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,5

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

2,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,69 xG 0,52

57% Possession 43%

18 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 16. · Casa Pia 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+13	+11.4	28
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+13	+11.4	25
3	Porto	10	7	1	2	+6	+8.5	22
4	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+11	+5.7	20
5	Guimaraes	10	6	1	3	+6	+1.7	19
6	Moreirense	10	5	2	3	+3	-0.6	17
7	Boavista	10	4	3	3	+1	-4.4	15
8	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	+1	-3.7	15
9	Farense	10	4	1	5	+3	-4.4	13
10	Estrela	10	3	2	5	-4	-1.3	11
11	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-13	-6.2	11
12	Gil Vicente	10	3	1	6	+1	-2.5	10
13	Casa Pia	10	2	4	4	-1	-1.3	10
14	Vizela	10	2	3	5	-5	-1.0	9
15	Rio Ave	10	2	2	6	-7	-1.1	8
16	Estoril	10	2	1	7	-5	-5.0	7
17	Chaves	10	2	1	7	-16	-6.0	7
18	Arouca	10	1	3	6	-7	-1.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+9	+7.2	18
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+8	+3.6	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+8	-0.1	10
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+8	+7.6	10
5	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.0	10
6	Farense	6	3	1	2	+5	-0.6	10
7	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.6	10
8	Porto	5	3	1	1	+2	+7.9	10
9	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.2	8
10	Moreirense	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.3	7
11	Rio Ave	6	2	1	3	-2	+1.7	7
12	Estrela	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.4	6
13	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.6	4
14	Chaves	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.6	4
15	Vizela	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.2	4
16	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-3	+1.3	4
17	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.6	4
18	Casa Pia	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.4	15
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+4	+0.6	12
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.2	10
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+3	-1.9	10
5	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+3	-0.9	10
6	Casa Pia	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
7	Boavista	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.2	7
8	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.9	7
9	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	-9	-4.6	7
10	Famalicao	5	1	2	2	-1	-2.1	5
11	Estrela	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.8	5
12	Vizela	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.3	5
13	Farense	4	1	0	3	-2	-3.8	3
14	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-5	-4.4	3
15	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-13	-5.3	3
16	Arouca	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.6	2
17	Rio Ave	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
18	Gil Vicente	5	0	0	5	-7	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.