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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Guimaraes

S S T T U

3–2

Full-time

Estoril

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,5

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,5

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,93 xG 0,89

68% Possession 32%

25 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Guimaraes 7. · Estoril 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	+8.2	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+10	+7.5	18
3	Porto	7	5	1	1	+4	+4.5	16
4	Boavista	7	4	2	1	+5	-2.1	14
5	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+5	+3.1	13
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	-3.2	12
7	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-1	-0.8	10
8	Casa Pia	6	2	3	1	+3	+0.8	9
9	Portimonense	7	2	2	3	-8	-3.2	8
10	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.0	7
11	Gil Vicente	6	2	0	4	+3	-3.2	6
12	Farense	7	2	0	5	+0	-3.7	6
13	Arouca	7	1	3	3	-3	-0.4	6
14	Rio Ave	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.8	5
15	Vizela	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.2	5
16	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.5	5
17	Estoril	6	1	1	4	-3	+1.6	4
18	Chaves	7	1	1	5	-11	-3.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.2	9
3	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.4	8
4	Porto	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.7	7
5	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
6	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+6	-1.6	6
7	Farense	4	2	0	2	+3	-0.8	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.0	6
9	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+4.2	4
10	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
11	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
13	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.6	4
14	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
15	Estrela	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
16	Casa Pia	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
17	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.3	1
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.1	9
2	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.3	9
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.2	9
4	Casa Pia	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
5	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.7	7
6	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	-3	-1.4	7
7	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.5	6
8	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
9	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.8	4
11	Chaves	4	1	0	3	-8	-3.8	3
12	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
13	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.1	2
14	Vizela	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.3	1
15	Rio Ave	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.9	1
16	Gil Vicente	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.6	0
17	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
18	Estoril	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.