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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Rabo Peixe

S S S T S

0–2

Full-time

Casa Pia

U S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rabo Peixe Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 49%

80%

17%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

60%

Both score Ø 47%

60%

33%

Average goals

3,6

1,3

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Nacional	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
10	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
12	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
13	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
14	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Pêro Pinheiro	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+12	3
18	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
19	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
20	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
21	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
22	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
23	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
24	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
25	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
26	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
27	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
28	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
29	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
30	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
31	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
32	Vila Meã	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
53	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
61	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
62	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
63	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
64	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
65	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
66	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
67	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
68	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
69	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
70	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
71	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
74	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
82	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
83	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
84	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
85	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
86	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
126	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
127	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
128	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
129	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
130	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
131	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
132	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
133	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
134	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
135	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paredes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
4	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
6	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
7	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
9	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
32	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Pêro Pinheiro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
39	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
40	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
71	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
72	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
73	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
74	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
75	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
2	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Montalegre	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+12	3
5	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
6	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
8	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
10	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Santa Maria FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Estrela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	AVS	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
46	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
81	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
82	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
83	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
84	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.