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Primeira Liga

Referee: Anzhony Rodrigues

Casa Pia

U S T U S

3–1

Full-time

Arouca

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 25%

29%

21%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

21%

43%

Both score Ø 40%

43%

36%

Average goals

2,1

2,2

Scored

0,9

0,6

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,81 xG 0,62

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 9. · Arouca 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	12	0	2	+33	+28.0	36
2	Benfica	14	11	2	1	+26	+15.9	35
3	Porto	14	11	1	2	+24	+16.9	34
4	Santa Clara	14	9	0	5	+3	+7.9	27
5	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+9	+12.5	25
6	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+4	+3.4	22
7	Moreirense	14	6	2	6	+0	+1.2	20
8	Famalicao	14	4	7	3	+2	-5.9	19
9	Casa Pia	14	4	5	5	-4	-2.7	17
10	Gil Vicente	14	4	4	6	-7	-7.8	16
11	Rio Ave	14	4	4	6	-10	-11.1	16
12	Estoril	14	3	5	6	-9	-14.3	14
13	AVS	14	2	6	6	-11	-7.7	12
14	Nacional	14	3	3	8	-11	-1.4	12
15	Estrela	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.2	12
16	Boavista	14	2	5	7	-9	-2.5	11
17	Arouca	14	3	2	9	-15	-11.5	11
18	Farense	14	2	3	9	-13	-11.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	8	0	0	+19	+16.8	24
2	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+20	+10.3	21
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+13	+12.5	18
4	Santa Clara	7	6	0	1	+4	+7.9	18
5	Moreirense	6	4	2	0	+5	-1.5	14
6	Guimaraes	6	4	1	1	+4	+3.1	13
7	Rio Ave	7	3	4	0	+3	+1.0	13
8	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+4	+9.5	12
9	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.1	11
10	Estrela	7	3	2	2	+0	-1.8	11
11	Estoril	8	3	2	3	-3	-7.2	11
12	Famalicao	7	2	4	1	+0	-1.3	10
13	Nacional	7	3	1	3	-5	-2.2	10
14	Casa Pia	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.6	9
15	AVS	8	2	3	3	-5	-5.7	9
16	Arouca	7	2	1	4	-5	-6.0	7
17	Farense	7	2	0	5	-7	-3.4	6
18	Boavista	6	0	2	4	-8	-0.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+20	+15.4	18
2	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.6	14
3	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+5	+3.1	13
4	Porto	6	3	1	2	+5	+0.1	10
5	Famalicao	7	2	3	2	+2	-4.6	9
6	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	+0	+0.4	9
7	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-1	-1.7	9
8	Santa Clara	7	3	0	4	-1	+0.1	9
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.3	8
10	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-5	+2.7	6
11	Gil Vicente	8	1	2	5	-12	-7.9	5
12	Arouca	7	1	1	5	-10	-5.5	4
13	AVS	6	0	3	3	-6	-2.0	3
14	Estoril	6	0	3	3	-6	-7.1	3
15	Farense	7	0	3	4	-6	-8.5	3
16	Rio Ave	7	1	0	6	-13	-12.1	3
17	Nacional	7	0	2	5	-6	+0.8	2
18	Estrela	7	0	1	6	-12	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.