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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

Bayern Munich

U T S S T

5–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 64%

71%

57%

Points per game

2,4

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

71%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

43%

Average goals

3,9

2,7

Scored

3,0

1,6

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+2,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,25 xG 0,34

71% Possession 29%

22 Shots 4

9 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · RB Leipzig 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	3	1	+30	+22.7	33
2	Leverkusen	14	8	5	1	+12	+10.7	29
3	Ein Frankfurt	14	8	3	3	+14	+4.2	27
4	RB Leipzig	14	8	3	3	+8	+0.2	27
5	Freiburg	14	7	3	4	+1	+5.5	24
6	Stuttgart	14	6	5	3	+5	+6.1	23
7	Mainz	14	6	4	4	+6	+1.2	22
8	Dortmund	14	6	4	4	+4	+2.8	22
9	Werder Bremen	14	6	4	4	-2	-0.4	22
10	Wolfsburg	14	6	3	5	+6	-2.4	21
11	M'gladbach	14	6	3	5	+4	+3.6	21
12	Union Berlin	14	4	5	5	-2	-2.7	17
13	Augsburg	14	4	4	6	-11	-4.8	16
14	Hoffenheim	14	3	5	6	-7	-9.2	14
15	St Pauli	14	3	2	9	-8	-6.2	11
16	Heidenheim	14	3	1	10	-13	-3.7	10
17	Holstein Kiel	14	1	2	11	-23	-11.8	5
18	Bochum	14	0	3	11	-24	-15.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	8	6	2	0	+12	+6.5	20
2	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+14	+11.6	16
3	M'gladbach	8	5	1	2	+7	+3.7	16
4	Freiburg	7	5	1	1	+5	+5.2	16
5	Ein Frankfurt	6	4	2	0	+10	+5.0	14
6	Stuttgart	7	4	2	1	+7	+9.5	14
7	Leverkusen	7	4	2	1	+5	+7.4	14
8	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+4	+2.2	14
9	Augsburg	8	4	2	2	+2	+5.6	14
10	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.1	12
11	Mainz	8	3	2	3	+0	+1.7	11
12	Hoffenheim	7	3	1	3	-2	-2.9	10
13	Wolfsburg	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.2	8
14	Werder Bremen	6	1	3	2	-5	-2.0	6
15	St Pauli	7	1	2	4	-6	-0.8	5
16	Heidenheim	7	1	1	5	-8	-0.4	4
17	Holstein Kiel	7	1	0	6	-15	-6.2	3
18	Bochum	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	5	2	1	+16	+11.1	17
2	Werder Bremen	8	5	1	2	+3	+1.6	16
3	Leverkusen	7	4	3	0	+7	+3.3	15
4	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+8	-0.2	13
5	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+4	-0.8	13
6	RB Leipzig	7	4	1	2	+4	-2.0	13
7	Mainz	6	3	2	1	+6	-0.4	11
8	Stuttgart	7	2	3	2	-2	-3.5	9
9	Freiburg	7	2	2	3	-4	+0.3	8
10	St Pauli	7	2	0	5	-2	-5.5	6
11	Heidenheim	7	2	0	5	-5	-3.3	6
12	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.1	5
13	Union Berlin	7	1	2	4	-4	-4.8	5
14	Hoffenheim	7	0	4	3	-5	-6.3	4
15	Holstein Kiel	7	0	2	5	-8	-5.7	2
16	Dortmund	6	0	2	4	-8	-3.7	2
17	Augsburg	6	0	2	4	-13	-10.4	2
18	Bochum	8	0	1	7	-14	-10.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.